Mammon's Peach: Current Page. Archives indexed by Subject. Comments? Contact Charles M. Cork, III.
Contents of this page:
September 20
Educating the people v. Enriching the rich
Chile and the First September 11
September 19
World Economics from the perspective of the poor
September 18
The Iraqi-9/11-link war lie
Pension relief to companies, not to workers
Mammon unbridled - what it is really like
Consumerism: How be made in the image of Mammon
September 17
Low interest rates subsidized by job losses
A step toward health care for the uninsured
Reregulating credit to prevent individual bankruptcy
Subsidizing Mammon's SUV Beasts
Unethical budget priorities
Ethical International Trade
September 16
Iraqi oil for the Iraqi people
They lie about civil justice too, and for the same reason
September 15
Poorer WTO members demand protections for the poor
September 14
Mammon's Heaven
Mammonite faith: help the poor by enriching the rich
Unsustainable budget priorities
Misallocation of medical services based on money
Double Talk on American War Intentions
September 12
Protecting patients from their insurers
Double Talk on British War Lies
Mammon tries to regulate itself - Energy
Saturday, September 20, 2003
Educating the people v. Enriching the rich
In The Real Supply Side, Robert B. Reich writes that instead of subsidizing the rich through tax cuts, sound economic policy should aim at improving the schools, because people ("human capital") are the real "supply side." Excerpts:
[T]his isn't a one-size-fits-all economy anymore; mass-production jobs are going the way of the family farm. If young people are to grow into successful adults in this new economy, they'll have to learn how to think in a variety of ways, solve new problems and become quick learners in unfamiliar situations. [But children in poorer communities aren't getting the opportunities.]
… Next year's deficit is already approaching a record $500 billion. The heart of George W. Bush's domestic policy is his $1.7 trillion in tax cuts, which, as we know by now, go mostly to wealthy families. No reputable economist believes they will stimulate the economy, for the obvious reason that rich families already spend what they want to spend. That's the very definition of being rich. The only conceivable justification for these tax cuts goes under the rubric of "supply-side economics." The theory is that the rich will invest the extra money they get from the tax cuts in new factories and equipment, thereby growing the American economy. The fallacy here is that we're in a global economy, and the money the rich save by not paying taxes is as likely to go to East Asia or Europe in search of high returns as it is to America.
… [Since the only truly American asset that is likely to stay here is our people, it] makes absolutely no sense to give tax benefits to people at the top and simultaneously fail to fund our schools. State and local budgets are tight mainly because the economy is still struggling to break out of recession, and because states and cities don't have adequate revenues. Poor districts are especially strapped because their own tax bases have shriveled. Federal funding for poor schools needs to be dramatically expanded. The No Child Left Behind Act requires a lot more money behind it.
It's a simple lesson the Bush administration and the Republican Congress should have learned by now: The real supply side lies not with financial capital but with human capital.
The same points were made locally in New kind of leadership needed - now, by Peter C. Brown, who writes that any effort to make changes for the common good is stifled by the politics of racial division, which is the way our leaders want it to stay. Excerpts:
… The paramount issue that challenges Macon/Bibb County's future is the quality of public education in the county. SAT scores are down dramatically. Math abilities continue to decline. We have a devastating drop-out rate. The Board of Education knows this. The Chamber of Commerce knows this. The CEOs and political leaders who have formed Education First know this. … We are becoming two school systems in Bibb County, a public "urban" black system and a private "suburban" white system - which will further diminish educational opportunity and erode community support. … If 90 percent of the leadership of this county had their own children and grandchildren in integrated public schools, the schools would work. They would be made to work. When it comes to race, we are like a dysfunctional family where everyone knows what the real problem is, but nobody is allowed to name it. Instead, we blame each other.
Chile and the First September 11
In Hit Records, Jonathan Goldberg reports on the results of his interviews and study of de-classified documents surrounding the coup against then-newly-elected Socialist leader Salvador Allende, with links to key documents. He also urges the US to come clean about its involvement in the coup in order to state the truth and to refute the overstatement of our involvement. He concludes that, although we wanted the coup and met with its plotters and offered encouragement, we did not actually supply military force for the coup. (At least, it never developed that we had to do so to make the coup work.)
Friday, September 19, 2003
World Economics from the perspective of the poor
In Forecast Gloomy for Poor, Says Alternative Outlook, Emad Mekay reports on the contrast between the IMF's"World Economic Outlook," which gives a standard appraisal of growth in regional and global economies, and the "Real World Economic Outlook" published by Jubilee Research, which looks at economies from the perspective of the poor. Although the world generally and its various regions are expected to experience economic growth, it is not expected to trickle-down to the poor. Quite the contrary, it trickles-up for a variety of reasons:
… ''Despite much rigging of statistics, the 'trickle down' effect has not been proven. Instead, as the World Bank's own data illustrates, poor countries are lenders to the rich -- unwittingly financing opulent living standards in the U.S. and elsewhere,'' said RWEO Editor Ann Pettifor, in a press release from Dubai. … According to the report, this vacuum effect of the global economy is achieved largely by an international financial structure skewed to benefit the rich.
- The dollar-dominated global financial system means that poor and rich countries alike are obliged to continue financing the U.S. deficit, through the purchase of U.S. ''IOUs'' (treasury bills). In the absence of a global key currency standard, those treasury bills now play the part that gold once held in the global economy, the RWEO says. Poor nations "are, in effect, making very low interest rate loans to the United States, while at the same time borrowing from abroad (including from the United States, the World Bank, and the IMF) at very high rates of interest.''
- In addition, capital totalling 97.8 billion dollars departs poor countries for banks in Switzerland, Britain and, especially, the United States every year in the form of foreign direct investment (FDI), it adds. Some of this money is legal investments made by residents of developing countries, "but much of it is illegal capital that finds its way into the accounts of all too willing banks in the North".
- Remittances of multinational corporations from profits they make in developing countries also impoverish poor countries, according to the RWEO. It estimates those remittances equalled 55 billion dollars in 2001.
The end result: increased transfer of resources from poor countries, and the concentration of wealth in rich ones. ''There is a net flow of 48 billion dollars every year from the poorest people to the richest, easily outstripping annual aid grants of 32 billion dollars,'' it concludes.
Thursday, September 18, 2003
The Iraqi-9/11-link war lie
In Bush Disavows Hussein-Sept. 11 Link, Dana Milbank reports that the Bush administration finally stated categorically that there is no evidence that Saddam Hussein was involved in the 9/11 attack. But the following excerpts show that the administration intentionally left this connection unclear and suggested, to the contrary, that Hussein was involved, disinformation that led a majority of Americans to support the conquest:
On Sunday, Vice President Cheney said on NBC's "Meet the Press" that success in Iraq means "we will have struck a major blow right at the heart of the base, if you will, the geographic base of the terrorists who had us under assault now for many years, but most especially on 9/11."
In his May 1 speech announcing the end of major combat in Iraq, Bush said, "The battle of Iraq is one victory in a war on terror that began on September the 11th, 2001." He added: "With those attacks, the terrorists and their supporters declared war on the United States. And war is what they got."
PS 9/19: Links to 9/11 were built into the legislation (written by the White House) authorizing war against Iraq and into the President's declaration of war, as quoted here.
Pension relief to companies, not to workers
In Senate Panel Votes to Give Pension Relief to Companies, Mary Williams Walsh reports:
America's pension funds now have a total deficit of about $400 billion — a record — and unless the rules governing pension financing are eased, many companies will have to start making large contributions to close the gap. The Senate bill would shield companies from having to do that during a slow economy, helping them conserve cash. But it would also weaken the pension funds, the government projections show.
So in this dispute between ensuring that business keeps its promises to its employees or putting workers at risk of having their savings evaporate, the house and senate choose the latter.
So what does a worker do to save for retirement? If funds are left in employer pension funds, the employer and congress will knowingly let them be underfunded, and funds will vanish. If funds are put into stock market, examples such as the article below don't inspire confidence either. For obvious reasons, Social Darwinists want Social Security to be managed by these same forces.
Mammon unbridled - what it is really like
In Merrill Reaches Deal With U.S. in Enron Affair, Kurt Eichenwald reports on a settlement of possible criminal charges against Merrill Lynch. This is how Mammon acts when unrestrained by justice:
Information provided by prosecutors helped convince Mr. O'Neal [ML's CEO] that Merrill's culture had become too reckless and its procedures too lax, a Merrill official and other people close to the firm said. …
… According to the indictment, Enron was trying desperately late in 1999 to sell a stake in the barge. [Its CFO] approached Merrill about becoming the buyer. … While Merrill agreed to pay $28 million for the barges, 75 percent of that money was provided by Enron itself. And in a secret side deal, the indictment says, Enron executives pledged that Merrill would receive back its investment plus an agreed-upon profit within six months. Consequently, the indictment says, Merrill never had any risk in the deal, and so never actually purchased anything; Enron, meanwhile, booked $12 million in bogus profits.
Besides the barge deal, today's settlement encompasses a second 1999 transaction in which Merrill and Enron engaged in back-to-back energy trades. Though the trades effectively canceled each other out, Enron was able to book income from them because of the way they were treated under accounting rules.
And this is how Mammon can be restrained:
Under the settlement, Merrill is required to establish a Special and Structured Products Committee that will be responsible for reviewing all of its structured finance transactions with any third party. In addition, for 18 months, Merrill must retain an independent auditing firm to review the committee's procedures. And the company will have to hire a lawyer — selected by the Justice Department — to oversee the work of the auditing firm. The lawyer will issue periodic reports to the government about Merrill's compliance with the settlement. The committee will be required to reject any transaction with a third party that it believes is intended to create a misleading effect on a company's earnings, revenues or balance sheet. Undocumented side agreements like the one described in the Nigerian barge indictment will be specifically prohibited. Any transactions, like the 1999 energy trades, that cancel out any real economic effect will also be prohibited. The committee must also review any year-end transaction with a third party "where Merrill Lynch knows or believes that the third party's primary motive is to achieve" accounting outcomes that would affect reported financial results. Such transactions were widely used in corporate America before the Enron debacle, and while some accounting rules have been tightened in Enron's wake, many deals that could serve to cloud financial reports can still be done legally.
The last sentence should be a caution to market worshipers.
Consumerism: How be made in the image of Mammon
In Reaching for luxury, Kim Campbell reports on the consumer culture encouraging the purchase of stylish, expensive, stuff. Excerpts:
"[They] are part of the effort to recast the debate and suggest that a love of style, a fascination with style, is not morally corrupt," says Daniel Horowitz, a professor of American studies at Smith College in Northampton, Mass. "These issues raise profoundly moral questions about what is enough, and what is a good society, and does satisfaction in our lives come from ... consuming more," he says. … Protestant sermons dating back to the 17th century extolled the virtues of keeping one's focus on higher things than overt consumption, notes Professor Horowitz.
… With more people achieving affluence, perhaps aesthetics is the way they are differentiating themselves. Paradoxically, in a democratic, capitalist society, materialism is often the way distinctions are made. "I don't think that's changed," says Bernard Mergen, professor of American studies at George Washington University. "Consumerism is what allows you to express your individuality."
The reduction of a human to a "consumer" and the grading of humans according to how much stuff they "consume" is a victory for Mammon.
Wednesday, September 17, 2003
Low interest rates subsidized by job losses
In Fed Holds Rates Steady, Citing Risks, John M. Berry reports that the Federal Reserve kept the overnight lending rate at 1%, despite growth in the economy, because of weakening in the labor market. Its report was the same as the report it gave on August 18 except that it referred to the job market as "mixed" then and "weakening" now. The stock market rallied (as usual, since increasing the size of the economy while cutting worker participation in it is "good for investors"). As for the weakening job market:
Stephen G. Cecchetti, an economist at Brandeis University and a former New York Federal Reserve Bank research director, analyzed the question this way: "Looking at things like the ratio of jobs to the total working-age population, we would conclude that the economy is down something like 5 million jobs since the beginning of 2001. Even a conservative estimate suggests that the economy won't be back to any sort of full employment until it has recovered at least half of these, plus generated new jobs to accommodate the natural labor force growth of about 1 percent per year."
A step toward health care for the uninsured
In Many California Employers Face Health Care Mandate, Milt Freudenheim reports on a California bill requiring employers to provide insurance for employees, which is intended to cut into the 9M Californians who are uninsured. Whether this is the best way to ensure health care for the poor, it is refreshing to see a government that is concerned enough to take vigorous steps. It is also pleasurable to see that doctors contended that the Chamber of Commerce was lying about the cost of the legislation.
The sponsors, including doctors, union spokesmen and advocates for patients, said the chamber's projections were exaggerated.
Reregulating credit to prevent individual bankruptcy
In Two incomes, more debt?, Marilyn Gardner reports on the reasons offered by experts for why families with two incomes are over-indebted and going bankrupt. She notes a controversial new theory (Elizabeth Warren and Amelia Warren Tyagi) that the availability of double incomes fueled an increase in housing prices (at least in desirable school districts) and thus created higher fixed (non-discretionary) liabilities, which cannot be simply trimmed back when job loss occurs. The deregulated mortgage industry allowed purchasers to assume greater loans (i.e., not requiring a larger downpayment). Another leading problem is usury:
"Bankers who wear $3,000 suits and starched shirts are now charging interest rates that Jimmy the Leg-breaker didn't charge 25 years ago," Warren says. "Nobody sounds the alarm. The consequence is a wealth transfer of tens of billions of dollars every year from middle-class families to a handful of big banks." A new study by Demos, a nonpartisan public-policy group in New York, supports that view. In the 1990s, the report finds, the average family's credit-card debt rose by 53 percent; middle-class families saw a 75 percent increase in that debt. For very low-income families, the figure shot up to 184 percent. "Deregulation of the credit-card industry has allowed companies to take advantage of tough economic times," says Tamara Draut, coauthor of the study, "Borrowing to Make Ends Meet." The group wants Congress to rein in aggressive lending practices.
The Demos report is consistent with the Biblical intuition that usury is a sinful way to harm the poor. Ex. 22:25; Lev. 25:36f; Dt. 23:19f; Neh. 5:4,11. The loss of this concept under Reagan has resulted in a shifting of tremendous money to the rich from the poor and middle class.
Subsidizing Mammon's SUV Beasts
In Conning Says Car Owners Subsidizing Premiums for Light Truck and SUV Owners, the Insurance Journal reports on a study indicating that SUVs and other light trucks are becoming huge underwriting risks, largely subsidized by the less vain who drive ordinary cars. See earlier items 289, 214, 169, and 85. This is yet another way in which the poor subsidize the wealthy.
Unethical budget priorities
In Handing Out Hardship, E. J. Dionne Jr. writes about recent positions taken by the Social Darwinists who run the country. Excerpts:
Let's get this straight: The administration wants $87 billion in new spending for Iraq, refuses to contemplate rolling back any of its tax cuts to pay for it -- and then proposes holding down new spending on child care for mothers trying to leave welfare. … The way to reach a balanced budget, Cheney insisted on "Meet the Press," was "to have fiscal discipline on the rest of the budget." That presumably includes child care. … Warning against the idea of child care as an entitlement, Sen. Rick Santorum, a Pennsylvania Republican, reassured us: "Making people struggle a little bit is not necessarily the worst thing."
… What's certain is that the administration believes that making high-income taxpayers "struggle a little bit" is definitely a bad thing. On that "Meet the Press" appearance, Cheney was asked about freezing the administration's tax cut for the top 1 percent of Americans, which, as host Tim Russert pointed out, would generate enough money to cover the $87 billion for the war in Iraq. No way, said Cheney. "I think it would be a mistake," he replied, "because you can't look at that without considering what its impact would be on the economy. An awful lot of the returns in that top bracket are small businesses, and they provide an awful lot of job growth in this economy." In a nifty move, Cheney manages to hide all of the nation's millionaires and corporate CEOs -- New York Stock Exchange Chairman Dick Grasso and his $140 million compensation package come to mind -- behind the proprietor of your local laundry or the owner of the neighborhood machine shop. I guess that struggle is a real motivator for Burger King Mom, but not for guys like Grasso.
Contrast Cheney's position with the Holy See's position in the preceding item for a clear example of the difference between God and Mammon.
Ethical International Trade
In Ethical Guidelines for International Trade: Holy See's Note to Ministerial Conference of World Trade Organization, the Holy See of the Catholic Church published a note on the ethical dimensions of world trade, commenting:
Trade rules, notwithstanding their technical appearance, have a political and social nature, with deep and lasting consequences in the life of humanity. The Holy See, without entering into technical and specialized matters, wishes to provide some ethical guidelines inspired by the fundamental and permanent values of the international community and which ought to guide all its activities, including trade.
The text is short and lean and can't be fairly summarized without simply reprinting all of it, so I commend it to the reader of this blog.
Tuesday, September 16, 2003
Iraqi oil for the Iraqi people
In Iraq doesn't have to become a cliche of oil-wealth excess, Bruce M. Everett, former regional manager for the Middle East for ExxonMobil's natural gas department 1992-1997, writes on what should be done with Iraqi oil wealth:
Peruvian economist Hernando de Soto, president of the Institute for Liberty and Democracy in Lima, argues that the major constraint on economic growth for the third world is denial of property rights and suppression of the entrepreneurial talents of ordinary people. … Iraq should distribute its oil revenues directly to its 25 million citizens, with each individual receiving $600 to $700 per year or $3,000 to $3,500 for a family of five. Beyond supporting basic human needs, much of this cash would be invested in small businesses, services, agriculture, and the other ingredients of a vibrant economy - without political strings. The enduring lesson of US history is that people should be trusted not only with the political life of the nation but with its economic life as well. The Iraqi people are entitled to the same trust.
At the start of the Iraqi conquest, our president said that Iraqi oil was for the Iraqi people. Was it just a wonderful sound-bite? Of course, and even the sound bite has been revoked (item 274). But it is still a truth.
They lie about civil justice too, and for the same reason
In What Crisis?, Sandra G. Boodman reports on reaction to the GAO report (item 309) that the medical malpractice insurance crisis is not causing widespread loss of access to physicians, contrary to the PR campaign of doctors and the Republican party. Excerpts:
In Pennsylvania and West Virginia, for example, two of 19 states designated by the AMA as being in a "full-blown liability crisis," the number of doctors per capita has actually increased in the past six years, according to the GAO.
In Florida, where the state medical society told congressional investigators that all the neurosurgeons in Collier and Lee counties had stopped practicing, the GAO found at least five such specialists at work in each county. Although medical groups have repeatedly warned that doctors are reluctant to come to Florida because of escalating premiums, the GAO found that the number of new medical licenses issued by the state has increased in the past two years.
A study released last week about Maryland, where medical groups have warned about a "crisis" caused by rising malpractice premiums, reached similar conclusions. … And while some groups have warned about an "exodus" of physicians, the number of doctors in the state actually increased between 1996 and 2002, according to the advocacy group.
… [Maryann Napoli, deputy director of the New York-based Center for Medical Consumers, observes:] "It's interesting that [organized medicine] always zeroes in on pregnant women every time there's a so-called crisis. … "What's often lost in this discussion is that there is much more malpractice than there are malpractice suits," Napoli noted. A 1991 study by Harvard University researchers, still regarded as the most influential of its kind, found that acts of medical negligence are eight to 10 times more common than malpractice lawsuits.
As noted earlier (item 352), the entire point of current Republican lies is to put more money in the pockets of their major contributors, insurers, doctors, and other interests of Mammon. Here the scapegoat is the jury system, rather than the acts of insurers competing for market share during the stock market bubble. There it was the threat of WMDs. It might not be so bad if those contributors were actually needy, but as it is, it simply attempts to have the rich get richer at the expense of the neediest people: their victims.
Monday, September 15, 2003
Poorer WTO members demand protections for the poor
In Rich-Poor Rift Triggers Collapse of Trade Talks, Kevin Sullivan reports on the collapse of the WTO talks when poorer nations united to demand a better deal for the poor, not just the wealthy in all nations:
The United States and other rich nations argue that free trade has created jobs and wealth around the world, and that reducing more barriers to trade would expand that success. But poor nations argue that the rules of global trade have been tilted too heavily in favor of major industrialized nations, causing some of the world's most vulnerable people to fall deeper into poverty. … "We won't move forward unless we do something for these poor people who have so much to lose," said Ivonne Juez de Baki, a delegate from Ecuador, which is a member of a group of 22 nations -- including Brazil, China and India -- that played a key and contentious role this week in pressing the United States and the European Union for concessions.
Sunday, September 14, 2003
Mammon's Heaven
In The Tax-Cut Con, Paul Krugman reflects on the zealot arguments against taxes in this country. He notes that we pay far less per capita of our GDP in taxes than almost every other advanced country. Taxes as a share of GDP are at their lowest level since Eisenhower. The ratio (until Bush) has been essentially flat since Nixon. Middle-income Americans pay about 26% of their incomes in taxes, about the same as the Nixon days. Wealthy Americans pay about 35%, which is about half of what it was in the 1970's, and apart from a brief period between 1988 and 1993, the lowest rate since 1932. Corporate taxes have been cut in half since the 1960s. The estate tax (which only affects the wealthy) has been cut substantially and will disappear.
The motives behind the tax-contras range between supply side economics (which theoretically preserves funding for social programs painlessly) and "starving the beast," ending social programs by cutting the funds. The energy is for the latter, to end Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. It requires making voters hate the government, and it calls in fact for increasing taxes on middle-income Americans to make them mad at the government. The "starve-the-beasters" created the "supply siders" cynically to use their naive optimism is a useful front. They conspire to sell tax cuts to the American public as painless (no loss of social programs), when the end result was to slash spending on social programs.
Partisans disagreed over whether supply side economics worked under Reagan to increase the wealth (the economy most likely increased due to the massive governemental military spending). Reagan however built up a massive deficit and was limited in slashing public spending, so George XLI had to revoke a "read my lips" pledge and raise taxes. Clinton raised them further, but the disaster that conservatives predicted never materialized.
Tax-contras then began a massive campaign of obfuscation to persuade the American public that it was paying too much in taxes (but see first paragraph above), e.g., renaming the estate tax as the "death tax." George XLIII has slashed taxes, but his public reasons for doing so have varied repeatedly over time. It began (2000-01) with returning excess money to the taxpayers. Then (Summer 2001) it became "demand-side" economic stimulus: more money in the pockets leads to more spending and end the recession. Now (2003), the rationale is that reducing taxes on dividends improves long-term corporate growth, a "supply-side" argument. All of these reasons were unbelievable.
So what were the Bush tax cuts really about? The best answer seems to be that they were about securing a key part of the Republican base. Wealthy campaign contributors have a lot to gain from lower taxes, and since they aren't very likely to depend on Medicare, Social Security or Medicaid, they won't suffer if the beast gets starved. Equally important was the support of the party's intelligentsia, nurtured by policy centers like Heritage and professionally committed to the tax-cut crusade. The original Bush tax-cut proposal was devised in late 1999 not to win votes in the national election but to fend off a primary challenge from the supply-sider Steve Forbes, the presumptive favorite of that part of the base.
Bush has used "chicanery" to sell his tax cuts. One trick is the use of "sunset clauses" to understate the long-term budget impact of tax cuts. To avoid a bad 10-year forecast, the tax rates revert in the 11th year, although the tax-contras will exert pressure not to let the rates revert then. If they are successful, a projected $350B cost will really soar to $800B (as if $350B is not soaring already). Bush sold these as middle-class tax cuts, but they mainly benefit the very affluent.
According to estimates by the Tax Policy Center -- a liberal-oriented institution, but one with a reputation for scrupulous accuracy -- the 2001 tax cut, once fully phased in, will deliver 42 percent of its benefits to the top 1 percent of the income distribution. (Roughly speaking, that means families earning more than $330,000 per year.) The 2003 tax cut delivers a somewhat smaller share to the top 1 percent, 29.1 percent, but within that concentrates its benefits on the really, really rich. Families with incomes over $1 million a year -- a mere 0.13 percent of the population -- will receive 17.3 percent of this year's tax cut, more than the total received by the bottom 70 percent of American families. Indeed, the 2003 tax cut has already proved a major boon to some of America's wealthiest people: corporations in which executives or a single family hold a large fraction of stocks are suddenly paying much bigger dividends, which are now taxed at only 15 percent no matter how high the income of their recipient.
Bush used statistical manipulation (see item 156) to make the tax cuts sound as though voters would receive $1,000, whereas a large number received no tax cut, half received a cut of less than $100, and the cut for the overwhelming majority was less than $500. It touted some tax cuts as if they were typical, but they applied only to a very small class of families. As to the social value of these policies:
… And it is hard to deny that, on a jobs-per-dollar basis, the Bush tax cuts have been extremely ineffective. According to the Congressional Budget Office, half of this year's $400 billion budget deficit is due to Bush tax cuts. Now $200 billion is a lot of money; it is equivalent to the salaries of four million average workers. Even the administration doesn't claim its policies have created four million jobs. Surely some other policy -- aid to state and local governments, tax breaks for the poor and middle class rather than the rich, maybe even W.P.A.-style public works -- would have been more successful at getting the country back to work.
A fiscal crisis will hit in ten years or so. It will not be possible to meet it without vastly redefining what government is about or sharply increasing taxes. Eliminating "wasteful spending" will be unable to touch any significant US spending unless Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are cut by about 40%. We will be unable to make it up by borrowing. This scenario is what the Tax-contras are planning. The elderly will make up a disproportionate share of the poor, unable to afford medical care. (so much for the Fifth Commandment.) There will be no tenable public education.
Welcome to the heaven of social Darwinism.
Mammonite faith: help the poor by enriching the rich
In Good Economy. Bad Job Market. Huh?, Louis Uchitelle reports on the questionable assumptions underlying Big Business's arguments that, with patience, the tax cuts and other stimulus policies for the wealthy will create wealth for workers, mainly that there will be sufficient demand for more products:
"I hesitate to say that high productivity is bad," said William C. Dudley, director of domestic economic research at Goldman Sachs. "But if it is high, then you need more demand to generate employment, and if you don't get it, then the economy stalls."
Consider what happens when demand outstrips productivity. [It results in improvements to increase production, which generates more sales revenue for wages (and profits), which encourages spending and the addition of new jobs.] That is the way recoveries worked in the past, as employment and incomes rose and people engaged in the spending they had postponed during the recession. But demand this time is not firm enough. Even an economy propped up by tax cuts, military spending and other one-time fixes is expanding lately at only a 4 percent annual rate. That is a lot by past standards, but not enough when productivity has been surging at a 4.4 percent annual rate for 18 months. As a result, the nation's private-sector employers are behaving as if they were caught in a recession, which they very well may be if they continue to act this way. Unable to sell all they can produce, they have reduced by 1.1 percent the total number of hours worked since the start of the recovery in November 2001, and they have put a lid on raises for most of the nation's 108 million jobholders. Wages are rising, but hours are disappearing and the combination leaves weekly pay barely keeping up with inflation, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
[Optimists are contending that with patience, demand will inevitably increase and produce jobs.] Maybe. But the optimists aren't considering just how much demand is needed to outrun the unusual speed-up in productivity. [After the 1990-91 recession, we rebounded with job growth, but we didn't have the high level of job productivity that we now have, and that reduces the incentives to create new jobs.] As demand rises, employers hold back on hiring, squeezing more work from their existing staffs until they feel confident that the demand will last and strengthen. This time, they are holding back more than ever, still haunted by the collapse of the bubble economy and full of doubts about the sustainability of demand. Their refusal to hire or expand their operations undermines confidence, making matters worse.
But through it all, the rising productivity translates into rising sales revenue per hour worked. That revenue is being fed disproportionately into profits, which finally shot up early this summer, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports. Therein lies the case for sustaining the recovery through a different route than job creation and rising wages. [The optimists argue that profits will yield dividends and stock values, and consequently spending by shareholders (a stimulus package for the wealthy).] As hiring resumes, wage income will grow, further increasing demand. Higher profits, in sum, will lead indirectly to job creation, completing the circuit. All this assumes, of course, that productivity will continue to rise at a healthy clip, fattening profits until job creation and demand finally take hold. That is still a shaky assumption. The startling productivity improvement may be mainly a result of squeezing workers. That is hardly solid ground for completing the trek from profits to jobs.
Giving this theory the benefit of every charitable interpretation, it is at best a faith that increasing the wealth of the wealthy will trickle down to others. Some may, the rest will not. It is guaranteed to make the rich richer and the poor poorer.
Unsustainable budget priorities
In Dizzying Dive to Red Ink Poses Stark Choices for Washington, David Firestone reports on the decline in the nation's economic fortunes, a "fall worthy of Milton." We've gone from Bush's initial 10-year projection of a surplus of $5.6TR to a projection of a $2.3TR deficit in the same time frame, which is the administration's best case scenario, an $8TR difference. Excerpts:
… The budget was upended by what economists now say were three independent forces gathering in power at once: a steep economic decline, a political consensus to slash taxes and the effects of the 2001 terrorist attacks.
… Next year's deficit was projected to be $480 billion, but the new Iraq spending will bring that to $540 billion or higher — close to the 5 percent of the gross domestic product that many experts warn is a serious danger zone for the economy.
… There is no sign yet, however, that either overall spending or tax cutting is changing course. The conservative Cato Institute noted tartly last month that Mr. Bush had never vetoed a spending bill, had advocated huge farm and Medicare programs and had presided over double-digit increases in spending each year of his term.
… The initial problem, several economists said, was that the surplus was never as large as it seemed. The economy of the late 1990's was operating beyond its capacity, Mr. Prakken said, and the stock market boom generated so much quick wealth at the highest levels that the resulting tax revenues were bound to return to earth. "The reality of the surplus projections was never really as good as it looked," Mr. Prakken said. "Because the surplus was essentially ephemeral, it declined at a much faster rate than the economy did, really breathtaking in its reversal." It was essentially a forecasting error, parallel to the "irrational exuberance" that Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan saw among investors during the 1990's.
… It is hard to find an independent economist who agrees with that [Bush's] optimistic forecast [that the long term deficit will be cut in half in five years by controlling discretionary spending], barring a nearly miraculous return to extremely high growth or draconian cuts in spending. Economists at the Wall Street firm of Goldman Sachs, for example, have said all year that their forecast was far gloomier than the administration's, and issued a statement last month saying the new numbers confirmed their warnings.
Misallocation of medical services based on money
In Patients in Florida Lining Up for All That Medicare Covers, Gina Kolata reports on the "overutilization" of medical services under medicare in Boca Raton. Patients are receiving expensive and "unnecessary" specialist treatments for relatively minor ailments. The high levels of costly treatment do not appear to have a positive effect on the mortality rates of the elderly population. Some of the effects:
- Procedures that medicare reimburses well are provided readily, whether necessary or not. Procedures that medicare reimburses inadequately, especially routine office visits, are grudgingly provided, if at all.
- How much medicare reimburses is determined competitively among specialities, and apparently the specialists have more clout and obtain higher reimbursement rates. Utilization rates (including the overulitization described in this article, but logically including underutilization as well) are not a factor in deciding reimbursement rates.
- Those who see patients for such routine work can profit only by keeping office visits short, so they frequently refer out to specialists anything requiring more time.
- The Boca Raton patients are also well educated and seek referrals to specialists more often than experts say is advisable, but there is no disincentive to making the referral.
- Medicare reimburses well for many diagnostic tests, so doctors own the testing facilities and use them as much as possible.
- Doctors are prescribing numerous unnecessary, but well reimbursed, procedures when simpler procedures are called for.
Excerpt:
Doctors say that Medicare's policies are guiding medical practice, with many making calculated decisions about whom to treat and how to care for them based on what Medicare covers, and how much it pays. "The bottom line is that the stuff that reimburses well is easier to get done," Dr. Carl Rosenkrantz, a Boca Raton radiologist, said. … "The system is broken," [internist Dr. Colton] said. "I'm not being a mean ogre, but when you give something away for free, there is nothing to keep utilization down. And as the doctor, you have nothing to gain by denying them what they want."
Making medical services costly is one way to prevent overutilization, but it causes underutilization in too many other cases. At the other extreme, another way is managed care, which uses both utilization reviews and financial incentives for holding costs down, but it is also incongruous to have third parties dictate to a professional and a patient what is actually "necessary," and financial incentives to reduce procedures works against patients in the same way that incentives to perform procedures works against the payor (and too often the patient as well).
The core problem here is that treating doctors, who are the ones best situated to make the best treatment decisions, make those decisions based on money, its easy availability or its stinginess, rather than on the best interests of the patient and, secondarily, of the payor.
Double Talk on American War Intentions
In U.S.-French Rift Reopened as Powell Arrives for Talks, Steven R. Weisman reports on differences between the US and the rest of the world over who gets to control Iraq. The French suggest that Iraq have a provisional government in a month, followed by rapid adoption of a constitution and elections, all under UN auspices. The US wants a longer process and the right to retain authority over the transition. The US position is apparently that we want to have it both ways:
… [Secretary of State Colin] Powell gave interviews to French, Russian and German media in which he all but ridiculed the idea that somehow the United States was wedded to being an occupier. "Nobody wants to turn sovereignty back to the Iraqi people as fast as the United States does, President Bush does and I do," Mr. Powell told France 2, a television network. But he said that the American occupation under "can't suddenly just step aside and turn it over — to whom?" He said that "since the United States and its coalition partners have invested a great deal of political capital, as well as financial resources, as well as the lives of our young men and women — and we have a large force there now — we can't be expected to suddenly just step aside." … "We need to get out of some of the rhetorical arguments we're having," he told French television. "One I hear is that the United States believes in the logic of occupation. Nonsense. Every European should know that the United States of America has always believed in the logic of liberation."
We don't want to be occupiers, but we've invested so much, "we can't be expected to suddenly just step aside." It reminds me of the line for the movie Ghandi, in which a general in a negotiation asks Ghandi, "you don't think we're simply going to walk away?" (or words to that effect), to which Ghandi replies "Yes. You are just going to walk away. You will find that x hundred thousand Englishmen cannot control y hundred million Indians if we simply refuse to obey" (or words to that effect).
The question is rather, "why not?" We have been told emphatically that the "mission [is] accomplished." The WMDs are not a threat (assuming that they ever were). We weren't going into the war to make a profit (at least not officially, though the language of "investment" may well tell more truth than Powell wished to convey). We made our investment and obtained what we claim we were after: security (which we defined in terms of WMDs, though in fact we seem to be "making enemies faster than we can kill them" -- item 336). So why can't we "just step aside" with gratitude to the UN for making things (more) legitimate and save us some major part of the supplemental occupation budget that George XLIII has proposed?
Otherwise, we might need the President to cut another $500B of taxes in order to "stimulate growth" and "create jobs" that will pay for the war.
Friday, September 12, 2003
Protecting patients from their insurers
In For Patients' Rights, a Quiet Fadeaway, Amy Goldstein reports on the status of efforts to enact a "Patients' Bill of Rights." In the final presidential debate of 2000, Bush promised to "do what's right for the people" to hold HMOs accountable. Nothing has been done on this front since then. Bush (falsely, as usual) blames lawyers, but the retort is hard to refute:
"We reached out to get a strong agreement on patient protections, but unfortunately powerful trial lawyers had too strong a grip on some Democrats," said White House press secretary Scott McClellan. Jim Manley, a spokesman for Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.), countered: "When you've got a situation where Republicans control all the levers of power in Washington, and the insurance industry [is] calling the tune, it would be impossible to get a good bill through the House and the Senate."
Still, the issue appears to have died down because
… Since the late 1990s, most of the nation's large health plans have dropped their central practice of requiring prior approval for medical tests, hospital admissions or visits to medical specialists. Instead, plans are simply requiring patients to pay more for the care they want.
… In a parallel trend, the nation's courts have become more accepting of lawsuits against health plans by disgruntled patients. Courts had long held that managed-care plans were largely shielded from litigation as a side effect of a 1974 federal law governing employee health benefits. In recent decisions, however, the Supreme Court has ruled that patients can bring complaints over HMOs' coverage decisions in state courts; that states can adopt independent review systems to handle complaints against health plans; and that states may require managed-care companies to work with any doctor who wants to take part.
… But [Rep. Charles Norwood, who was a leading figure in the Patients' Rights movement a while back] said in a interview that the other protections remain essential. "If you get down in the trenches and talk to folks who are seeing patients every day, the bottom line is [health plans] are still paying as little as possible."
It is true that some of the most egregious abuses by managed care have moderated, but unfortunately the 1974 law, ERISA, as interpreted by the courts, has caused an immense amount of harm in this area. ERISA, the employee retirement income security act, began as a pension reform law, but it was extended as an afterthought to most health care plans. Although it begins by stating its intent to protect workers against unscrupulous employers who fail to provide promised benefits, it "does so" by (a) stripping employees of state protection against unscrupulous acts practiced by health insurers and (b) leaving them to whatever rights the potentially unscrupulous employer/insurer gives in its written documents (including the employer's right to freely amend them). This had the effect of simply legalizing the same sorts of unscrupulous practices that it bills itself as preventing, because the only remedies allowed under ERISA are basically whatever is written in the employer/insurer's documents. If it is cheaper to let a chronically ill patient die than to provide some medical care for a long period of time, the insurer basically gets to stonewall and let the patient die, and is only liable, at most, for the services it should have provided anyway, not for the life it has sacrificed. I have recently dealt with one such case professionally.
The Patients' Bill of Rights movement needs to be resurrected.
Double Talk on British War Lies
In Parliamentary Panel Faults British Government on Iraq but Clears It of Falsifying Intelligence, Warren Hoge reports on a parliamentary committee's decision to clear the Blair administration of falsifying intelligence findings, but:
The committee also found that the government failed to reflect the level of uncertainty in the intelligence community about Iraq's ongoing production of biological and chemical weapons and ended up overestimating Iraq's current capabilities by ignoring the inhibiting effect the presence of United Nations inspectors would have had on getting arsenals up and ready for use. The committee also criticized Defense Secretary Geoff Hoon for being "unhelpful and potentially misleading" by failing to disclose in his closed-door testimony in July that some of his intelligence staff were troubled by overstated claims in a crucial intelligence dossier. … On the 45-minute claim, the committee said the matter had been presented out of context in a way that "allowed speculation as to its exact meaning" and was "unhelpful to an understanding of the issue." It said the dossier had left the impression that the arms referred to were long-range weapons of mass destruction that could reach far beyond Iraq when in fact they were battlefield chemical and biological weapons whose range was local.
It is amazing how they can get away with this double talk. Outright falsehoods, i.e. calling A "Not-A," are harmful because they tend to lead people to form the wrong conclusions. Leading people to think "Not-A" about A without explicitly saying so has the same danger of leading people to form the same wrong conclusions. Here, the same wrong conclusion was the overestimation of the threat of Iraqis to the rest of the world. As the law recognizes, fraud is subtle and can be accomplished in a multitude of ways. This level of deception on this significant a matter did not happen accidentally. (If it did, the government should resign simply because it is too stupid to be trusted to run anything.)
Mammon tries to regulate itself - Energy
In Why Reps. Billy Tauzin and Joe Barton Should Recuse Themselves From Further Involvement in the Energy Conference Committee, Public Citizen is calling on leading congressional energy negotiators Tauzin and Barton to recuse themselves from the current conference committee discussions because of their complicity in the Westar bribery efforts noted here earlier (item 157).