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Monday, November 8, 2004
Living and dying by the sword
In Is anyone ever truly prepared to kill?, Jane Lampman writes about the problems soliders have with killing and with returning to civilian life.
Much is rightly made of the dedication and sacrifice of those willing to lay down their lives for their country. But what is rarely spoken of, within the military or American society at large, is what it means to kill - to overcome the ingrained resistance most human beings feel to slaying one of their own kind, and the haunting sense of guilt that may accompany such an action. There is a terrible price to be paid by those who go to war, their families, and their communities, say some experts, by ignoring such realities.
Psychological injuries of war can't be tied solely to killing alone - seeing close comrades die and other horrors of war are also factors. But mental-health professionals and chaplains who've worked closely with veterans see killing as a significant contributor, along with other demoralizing elements of combat that soldiers experience or see as "a betrayal of what's right," says Veterans Affairs psychiatrist Jonathan Shay.
The devastating impact of war on soldiers was visible after World Wars I and II and the Korean War as well. But particularly evident today is the ongoing toll of the Vietnam War, whose vets are overrepresented in the homeless and prison populations. One-third are said to suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).
So how do we become killers? Both by military and cultural training.
To overcome that resistance [to killing other human beings in a war situation], the military revamped its training to program soldiers, through psychological conditioning, to make shooting reflexive. The techniques were applied with "tremendous success," Grossman says, raising the firing rate [from 20% in World War II] to 55 percent in the Korean conflict and 95 percent in Vietnam. Many say Americans must learn to be honest about the nature of combat. In a culture saturated with media violence, killing has become almost trivialized. Many veterans have the wrenching experience of being asked, "How many people did you kill?"
CEOs get Bush administration to stop the Shareholder Access Rule
In Bush Administration Stalls Major Corporate Reform to Please Donors, Public Citizen writes about its new report showing that the current administration backed its corporate CEO supporters in opposing the proposed "Shareholder Access Rule," a rule that would give shareholders some modest ability to have its own nominees elected to the boards of public companies. (It is roughly equivalent to allowing citizens in a political party the right to nominate candidates for a political party. For background, see items 865 and 424.)
Fifty-three senior executives from corporations opposed to the rule qualified as Rangers, Pioneers or Super Rangers - the honorary titles given to big-money bundlers who have collected at least $200,000 or $100,000, respectively, for the Bush campaigns or $300,000 for the Republican National Committee (RNC). These rainmakers personally rounded up at least $8.3 million - probably much more - for Bush campaign efforts in 2000 and 2004.
The report contains details of the lobbying efforts, which were followed by weaker versions of the rule and delaying its implementation. If this is an "ownership society," the question is, "who owns it?"
Tax cheating for the wealthy
In $500 Million Frozen in I.R.S. Crackdown in Doctors' Tax Case, Lynnley Browning writes about yet another tax shelter designed to save the wealthy from pulling their weight in the economy:
About 4,000 doctors and dentists across the nation bought tax-reduction plans in recent years from the company, Xelan, evading $420 million in taxes, not including interest and penalties, a statement from the Justice Department asserted. Xelan had set up several types of plans aimed at helping doctors and dentists lower their tax bills. The government is focusing on two of them, one involving a charity administered by Xelan and the other, disability insurance, which the company said would allow investors to defer taxes on income for seven years. The I.R.S. says that it found some two dozen instances of doctors using the charity to make "contributions" to their children's college tuition. [T]he Xelan Foundation, which was set up as a charity that allows the donors - and not the charity - to decide how their contributions are to be used. The Justice Department said it found 29 instances of the foundation's accepting pretax contributions from doctors and dentists, who then used the money for their children's college tuition.
The other focus of the investigation is a Xelan insurance business, called the Doctors Benefit Insurance Company, that is based in Barbados. The company offered four types of coverage for doctors, with a supplemental disability plan as its core product. Xelan told doctors that they could put up to 100 percent of their income tax-free into the supplemental disability plan. Legitimate payments for insurance are tax-deductible. Xelan told the doctors that their contributions were tax-free for seven years, after which they would owe taxes on the principal and gains. The I.R.S. maintains that the plan was not insurance but a taxable deferred-compensation program. The $505 million in Vanguard accounts was from the insurance plan, a Justice Department lawyer said.
FDA obstructing reports critical of major drug manufacturers
In Drug-Safety Reviewer Says F.D.A. Delayed Vioxx Study, Gardiner Harris writes about yet another example of Mammon's control over our government: This time, the FDA delayed and opposed an effort by an employee to publish a study showing the dangers of Vioxx. (See item 1115). Several instances of resistance from FDA superiors are noted, and others can be found in the archive.
Friday, November 5, 2004
Isaiah 57:14-59:21 and today
The following is an email message I wrote to a secular political discussion group for lawyers on the day after the election.
It was my job to lead a Bible study at 7:00 this morning [the Wednesday after the election] on the above text. The situation has some pertinence to what we are going through as a nation, so I share it with you. Feel free to comment. If it seems worthwhile, I'll do more of these from time to time.
Background
This is a part of Isaiah called "Third Isaiah" (Chs 56-66) by some scholars, who contend that it was written at some time roughly within a generation of the return of Israel from exile in Babylon (c. 538BCE). (Second Isaiah in Chs 40-55 is thought to have been written around the time of the return, but the original Isaiah in Chs 1-39 was written much earlier, during the period of 750-680BCE.) Second Isaiah at various places created an expectation of the start of the messianic age right away, so Third Isaiah tempers this message and explains why it hasn't started yet. The text of 56:1-57:13 starts by placing that "salvation" in the future and criticizes the blind "watchmen" (standard description of the prophets) and the "shepherds" (standard description for political rulers) who turn to their own gain, allowing the righteous of the community to perish, while the people fall into various kinds of idolatry.
Isaiah 57:14-59:21
This text contains some themes that are close to Christian concepts of the meaning of Jesus's life and death (or perhaps more correctly, those Christian concepts are modeled on such themes), esp. 57:18, 59:1-2,15-17,20-21. I won't dwell on those here. But the text has [generic] political implications that may be pertinent.
The text explains that God intends that there be peace (57:14-16), but there will be no peace while the self-interest, oppression, idolatry described in 56:1-57:13 continues, and while the lies, injustice, violence and shedding of innocent blood persists (57:17-21, 59:1-8). This is true even if the people are sincerely seeking and drawing near to God daily, with fasting and other observances, because at the same time, the people (at least the targets of this prophecy) "seek their own pleasure" and "oppress all the workers." The people interpret God's apparent inaction (they're still under Persian hegemony, which could be brutal and which probably snuffed out a messianic movement based on Zerubbabel - Zech 1-8) as not hearing them or seeing them. (58:1-5, 59:9-15).
Consequently, although the physical exile is over, because the people of Israel has returned to the land of Israel, there is still an experience of continuing exile because God has not yet returned to Zion (59:15-20). Although the Babylonian captivity is physically over, it effectively continues due to the sin of selfishness.
Instead, the true righteousness that will bring God's favor and peace is to stop those oppressions, to share bread with ("pour yourself out for") the hungry, to house the homeless, to clothe the naked, to satisfy the desire of the afflicted. When that occurs, God's light will dawn & God will finally "hear" and answer their calls (58:6-12). God will come back in righteousness and salvation, meting out justice against the transgressors, and effectuating the covenant by putting God's spirit upon the righteous and God's words in their mouths forever. (59:15-21).
So, what significance might this text have today? What if our country is in its own Babylonian captivity? It doesn't have to be physically located there (though a substantial number of us are captive there), but it is sufficient that the country lacks God's protection from attacks by foreign powers, and that it has been subjected to the attacks of foreign powers because of its various sins, including such things as violence and shedding of innocent blood (e.g., propping up the Saddams of the region and of the world, if not directly inflicting violence), while acting solely out of self-interest (we need their oil in this region, other resources in other regions). Although we are a nominally religious nation with numerous observances, we are not a socially just nation, so God doesn't "hear" our petitions, does not grant us peace, and leaves us to live and breathe and have our being in fear. How can we obtain God's peace? According to this text, by stopping those oppressions, by sharing with the poor, with satisfying the desire of the afflicted.
Even from a secular perspective, don't these observations make sense? Sweden isn't living in fear of terrorist attacks. Nor, likely, are France or Germany. Things are rather peaceful there. Yet, the more power we exert, the more we fear, and the more we have to fear, it seems to me.
Thursday, November 4, 2004
Insurers helping companies conceal losses
In S.E.C. Wants a Monitor to Examine A.I.G.'s Books, Gretchen Morgenson writes that the SEC is seeking to have an independent monitor to examine the financial books of AIG to determine whether it sold income-smoothing products to companies other than the one mentioned previously (item 1099), which helped a company conceal a loss on its financial statements.
A.I.G. paid $10 million to settle the Brightpoint matter with the S.E.C. [I]n announcing the settlement in September 2003, the regulators said A.I.G. "played an indispensable part" in the fraud at Brightpoint by selling it a "new 'insurance' product that A.I.G. had developed and marketed for the specific purpose of helping issuers to report false financial information to the public." The contract, regulators said, was designed to look like insurance, enabling A.I.G.'s clients to receive beneficial accounting treatment. Such policies are broadly known as finite insurance or financial reinsurance. In fact, however, the contract was actually a loan that involved no risk to A.I.G. According to regulators, the contract specified that Brightpoint deposit money with A.I.G. in the form of monthly premiums, which A.I.G. then agreed to refund to Brightpoint as purported insurance claim payments. In the [earlier] PNC Financial matter, the company shifted almost $800 million in troubled or underperforming loans from its books. The loans were sold to special-purpose entities created by A.I.G. but should have been included on PNC's financial statements, regulators said.
Drug maker concealed known dangers of drug, again
In Merck shares plunge after report it knew of Vioxx risks, AP reports:
Shares of Merck (MRK) plunged more than 7% Monday after a report said the pharmaceutical giant apparently hid or denied evidence for years that its blockbuster arthritis drug Vioxx causes heart problems. The Wall Street Journal reported that internal e-mails and marketing materials show the company knew as far back as 2000 that Vioxx was linked to an increased risk of heart attack but tried to discredit such evidence. The newspaper says that a March 9, 2000 e-mail from Merck research director Edward Scolnick to colleagues conceded an elevated risk of heart attack and stroke was "clearly there." Neverthless, the newspaper says, Merck continued to try to discredit academic researchers critical of the drug.
Plenty of other examples of this behavior are in the archive.
Sunday, October 31, 2004
Banking changes likely to transfer wealth from customers to banks
In Check This Out, The New York Times Editors comment that a recent change to federal banking law will allow banks to skim money off customers. While processing checks, they may now instantly deduct money from an account. They do not, however, need to credit deposits with similar speed.
So in addition to saving an estimated $2 billion a year in paper processing costs, the banks will make loads of money on the float. [Also, b]y processing checks faster while placing holds on deposits, banks are increasing the chances of bouncing a check. As banks start using the new procedures, unsuspecting consumers will bounce an estimated seven million more checks a month and pay an additional $170 million in monthly bounced-check fees. Worse yet, to promptly correct problems that may arise from electronic processing, such as double payment of a single check or payment in the wrong amount, the new rules require a customer to present a copy of the check's electronic image, known as a "substitute check." There's nothing to prevent a bank from charging a fee for providing the copy.
Giving it all away -- to CEOs
In Jackpot Du Jour: It Pays to Quit, Gretchen Morgenson writes about another way to divert corporate profit to excess CEO compensation, this time from a company called Audiovox. It sold a division to another company. At a board meeting to approve the sale, the board decided to treat the sale as a change of control in the company.
[This] result[ed] in payouts to the two executives under their long-term incentive compensation plan. Although the terms of the compensation plan, which took effect in 2002, did not note that an asset sale would qualify as a change in control, the Audiovox directors amended the awards plan to clarify that the sale would count as such. Presto. [Two corporate officers] both became $1.9 million richer as a result of the deal. And because [one left] for the new company, he received an additional $2.1 million for the termination of his contract. [One] will also receive $16 million for something called "personally held intangibles," or assets in Audiovox Communications that he says are his. According to company filings, these intangibles include [his] personal contacts and personal and professional relationships with suppliers, customers, contractors, financiers, employees and ex-employees of the wireless unit. They also include his "personal know-how," trademarks, trade names and patentable assets relating to the subsidiary.
The reporter comments that the shareholders might be surprised to learn that when this latter officer was acquiring all of those valuable intangible assets, he was doing so for himself rather than the company, and that they would have to pay him for them. The net result, though, is that through this action, the board of directors transfered over $20M from stockholders to the managers.
Improving the efficiency of the health care delivery system
In Is Kaiser the Future of American Health Care?, Steve Lohr writes that the Kaiser HMO may finally be addressing one of the two persistent problems of the American health care system, optimizing the use of health care dollars for better results. (The other issue is who pays for it.)
Kaiser emphasizes preventive care and managing chronic diseases like heart disease and diabetes to keep people healthier. And that saves money because healthier people require less costly care like hospitalization. Kaiser's approach is best illustrated in two ways: its management of chronic illnesses like heart disease and diabetes, and its $3 billion initiative to use information technology to improve clinical care and streamline operations.
In Northern California, Kaiser has sharply reduced the death rate for its three million members there in recent years by monitoring and controlling blood pressure and cholesterol levels and by promoting the use of aspirin and beta blockers (to reduce the risk of heart attacks) and statins (to lower cholesterol). The death rate from heart disease among the Kaiser members is 30 percent lower than it is in the rest of the Northern California population, adjusted for age and gender. IN Northern California alone, Kaiser spends $55 million a year on chronic-care management programs. "But what's really expensive is if we don't take care of these people and manage their chronic conditions," said Dr. Robert Mithun, chief of internal medicine at Kaiser's medical center in San Francisco.
Kaiser has been investing heavily in information technology for years. Its clinical information system includes electronic records with a patient's history, prescriptions and preventive health recommendations. A doctor can call up a patient's X-ray or magnetic resonance image on a desktop personal computer. Electronic prescribing - a goal in the government plan - is routine at Kaiser. Once [its current IT project] is in place, Kaiser clinicians will be able to tap into a vast but flexible storehouse of data that uses intelligent software to automatically flag potentially harmful drug combinations for a patient or to suggest what treatments have been most effective for other people who are of the same sex, age group and - eventually - genetic profile.
Our attack on Iraq killed 100,000 Iraqis
In Household Survey Sees 100,000 Iraqi Deaths, Emma Ross writes about a report from the British medical journal The Lancet that estimates that as many as 100,000 Iraqis (many women and children) died as a result of the US attack on Iraq.
The survey attributed most of the extra deaths to violence and said airstrikes by coalition forces caused most of the violent deaths. "Most individuals reportedly killed by coalition forces were women and children," the researchers wrote.
To conduct the survey, investigators visited 33 neighborhoods spread evenly across the country in September, randomly selecting clusters of 30 households to sample. Of the 988 households visited, 808, consisting of 7,868 people, agreed to participate. Each household was asked how many people lived in the home and how many births and deaths there had been since January 2002. The scientists then compared death rates in the 15 months before the invasion with those that occurred during the 18 months after the attack and adjusted those numbers to account for the different time periods. Even though the sample size appears small, this type of survey is considered accurate and acceptable by scientists and was used to calculate war deaths in Kosovo in the late 1990s. There were 46 deaths in the surveyed households before the war. After the invasion, there were 142 deaths. That is an increase from 5 deaths per 1,000 people per year to 12.3 per 1,000 people per year -- more than double. When the researchers recalculated the effect of the war without the statistics from Fallujah [a particularly violent spot that may have skewed the results], the deaths end up at 7.9 per 1,000 people per year -- still 1.5 times higher than before the war. Even with Fallujah factored out, the survey "indicates that the death toll associated with the invasion and occupation of Iraq is more likely than not about 100,000 people, and may be much higher," the report said.
Violent deaths -- The chances of a violent death were 58 times higher after the invasion than before it, the researchers said. Twelve of the 73 violent deaths were not attributed to coalition forces. The researchers said 28 children were killed by coalition forces in the survey households. Infant mortality rose from 29 deaths per 1,000 live births before the war to 57 deaths per 1,000 afterward.
Friday, October 29, 2004
A telling graphic against the need for tort reform
The following graph appears today on the cover of ModernPhysician.com:
Please note three things: (a) how low current premiums are relative to premiums in prior years, (b) how much less the payouts have been over the entire 28 year period than premiums collected, and (c) how flat (and thus predictable) the payouts have been, unlike how the premiums have risen (in times of low returns) and fallen (in times of high returns), but which have to be justified on the basis of predicting -- falsely -- future payouts.
Thursday, October 28, 2004
Nations largest medical malpractice insurer: Caps on damages dont have significant effect
From an email message discussing GE Medical Protective's request for a sizeable rate hike despite the enactment of constitutional provisions for tort reform, including a cap on "non-economic" (really "human") damages:
The insurers revelation was made to the Texas Department of Insurance (TDI) in a regulatory filing obtained by FTCR. The revelation was contained in a document submitted by GE Medical Protective to explain why the insurer planned to raise physicians premiums 19% a mere six months after Texas enacted caps on medical malpractice awards. According to the Medical Protective filing: Non-economic damages are a small percentage of total losses paid. Capping non-economic damages will show loss savings of 1.0%. The company also notes that a provision in the Texas law allowing for periodic payments of awards would provide a savings of only 1.1%. The insurer did not even provide its doctors that relief and eventually imposed a rate hike on its physician policyholders.
Medical Protective and other supporters of medical malpractice caps have repeatedly argued that damage awards are the primary reason for skyrocketing medical malpractice premiums. For example, in a March 2004 report. GE Medical Protective stated that capping non-economic damages is a critical element [of reform] because in recent years we have seen non-economic damages spiraling out of control.
Freeing interns from oppressive service, and improving human health
In Two Studies in New England Journal of Medicine Showing Benefits of Reduced Hours for Doctors in Training, Peter Lurie writes about a couple of studies showing that significant medical errors occur due to the practice of overworking young medical interns and residents.
These two studies are the most compelling studies ever published in the area of resident work hours. They prove that reducing work hours is feasible and, more convincingly than any prior research, demonstrate that patients will benefit from the more humane treatment of residents. It is time for the federal government to step in to protect both patients and residents, rather than leave this major public health problem in the hands of the industry that is responsible for the problem in the first place.
I blog this both to show that a money-making practice is harmful both to doctors and patients and to vindicate the validity of medical malpractice suits.
The Market's inability to provide well for human health
In The Health of Nations, Donald L. Barlett and James B. Steele write about why the market is not the best basis for operating a health system:
Notably absent from the rhetoric has been any mention of the existing system's inherent flaw - the inability of market-based, for-profit medicine to deliver on the political promises. The market functions wonderfully when we want to sell more cereals, cosmetics, cars, computers or any other consumer product. Unfortunately, it doesn't work in health care, where the goal should hardly be selling more heart bypass operations. Instead, the goal should be to prevent disease and illness. But the money is in the treatment - not prevention - so the market and good health care are at odds.
What's needed to control the costs and to provide basic health and hospitalization coverage for all Americans is an independent agency that would set national health care policy, collect medical fees, pay claims, reimburse doctors fairly and restrain runaway drug prices - a single-payer system that would eliminate the costly, inefficient bureaucracy generated by thousands of different plans. It's not such a radical idea; a single-payer system already exists for Medicare. It could be financed through two taxes, a gross-receipts business tax and a flat tax, similar to Medicare, but on all individual income. [It was avoid overly complex administration of benefits through thousands of different private plans.] It could gather information to more accurately identify the surgical procedures and drugs that work, and those that don't. It could funnel research money to where it will do the most good rather than to those areas with the largest and most vocal constituency, thereby treating the victims of various diseases and conditions more equitably. It could make possible a centralized computer network to reduce the 100,000 deaths each year from adverse drug reactions - a number of fatalities five times greater than those caused by street drugs like cocaine and heroin. Similarly, a nationwide network could track medical errors across the country to increase accountability and to identify hospitals or surgeons who make repeated mistakes. And it could guarantee supplies of needed medications. In short, over time such a system could transform the practice of medicine and give all Americans the first-class health care they deserve - without breaking the bank.
The article makes the point that the current problem of lack of flu vaccine is not due, as Mammon contends, to lawsuits, but it is due to economic reasons. The same point is made in Flu Vaccine Makers Are Few Because of Economics - Not Lawsuits and its study.
Although such a proposal for universal health care by a single payor is clearly the best, there is also a move afoot to patch the current system by giving the federal government the role of providing catastrophic coverage, or reinsurance. In Momentum Builds for U.S. Role in Paying Highest Health Costs, Milt Freudenheim and Robert Pear survey several of them.
PS 10/29: Vaccines Are Good Business for Drug Makers also makes the case that the lack of flu vaccine is due to market forces, not lawsuits.
Unaccountable, unnecessary costs incurred in the attack on Iraq
In Auditors Can't Account for Iraq Spent Funds, Larry Margasak writes about an audit documenting that we didn't document hundreds of millions of expenditures occasioned by the invasion of Iraq:
The report monitored spending by the Coalition Provisional Authority, the U.S.-run governing agency which went out of existence in June; Iraqi ministries; the Kurdish Regional Government and Iraqi provisional governments. It covered the period from January to June this year. In the CPA programs, "We found 37 cases where contracting files could not be located," the auditors said. The cost of the contracts: $185 million. In another 52 cases, there was no record of the goods received for $87.9 million in expenditures. In a military commanders' program to buy back weapons, $1.4 million was spent from a fund that specifically prohibited such expenditures, auditors said. Auditors questioned why checks were made payable to a U.S. official - a senior adviser to the Iraqi ministry of health - rather than to suppliers. Other questions were raised about funds provided by the U.S.-run governing authority to Kurdish officials in northern Iraq. In one instance, auditors were given a deposit slip that showed the transfer of $1.4 billion to a Kurdish bank. Auditors said they were denied access to accounting records and were unable to verify how - or if - the money was spent.
And, surprise, now they need more money. In White House Weighs Price Tag on Emergency Request for Iraq, Edmund L. Andrews writes:
With no sign of a letup in the war in Iraq, the Bush administration is preparing another emergency request for tens of billions of dollars to cover military and civilian costs there through the fiscal year 2005. Congress has already provided $25 billion for the fiscal year[.] The Washington Post reported Tuesday that the Bush administration was planning to ask for about $70 billion for Iraq and Afghanistan in fiscal 2005, on top of the $25 billion already provided. In June, the nonpartisan [CBO] estimated that military costs in Iraq and Afghanistan next year would total between $55 billion and $60 billion if the number of troops in Iraq remained at its current level of about 135,000. Gen. Peter J. Schoomaker, the Army chief of staff, said Tuesday that if Army operations in Iraq and Afghanistan continued at the current rate, then the service alone would need between $35 billion and $40 billion for the fiscal year beyond what Congress already has approved. In the past, the Army has incurred about 60 percent of the war's expenses.
Wednesday, October 27, 2004
Making tax cuts in all the wrong places
In Why Taxes Have to Go Up, the New York Times Editors write in favor of real deficit reduction, given that our deficits are financed by other nations and that those nations are reducing their investments in our debts. It calls for reversing the Bush tax cuts for the top 25% of filers and seeking alternative sources of revenue:
A good place to start would be an increased federal gasoline tax and a new tax on industrial carbon emissions, greenhouse gases that lead to global warming. Each tax change would pull triple duty by raising revenue, reducing dependence on foreign oil and helping the environment.
As for reversing the Bush tax cuts, economists at the Tax Policy Center examined those cuts in a series of articles.
In Bush Administration Tax Policy - Distributional Effects, William G. Gale and Peter Orszag summarize a study that examines who wins and loses under the tax cuts, particularly given that they must ultimately be paid for by additional revenues or reduction of services. They conclude, as before, that
[I]f the eventual financing is proportional to income, about 80 percent of households, including a large majority of households in every income quintile, will end up worse off after the tax cuts plus financing than before. [M]ost families (that is, with children) and most taxpayers with small-business income will be worse off once the financing is included.
In Bush Administration Tax Policy - Revenue and Budget Effects, they summarize a study that examines the effects of the tax cuts on the government.
If the tax cuts are made permanent, the revenue loss will exceed $3.3 trillion (1.7 percent of gross domestic product) over the period 2001 to 2014. The net budget loss (including higher debt service payments due to increases in federal debt) would be almost $4.5 trillion (2.3 percent of GDP). Over the longer term, the tax cuts would reduce revenue by 2 percent of GDP on an ongoing basis.
Tax cuts have to be financed. They are not simply a matter of returning unneeded or unused funds to taxpayers; instead, tax cuts represent a choice by current voters either to require future taxpayers to pay for current spending, or to cut such spending. For example, to pay for the tax cuts in 2014 would require a 45 percent reduction in Social Security benefits, a 53 percent cut in Medicare benefits, or changes of a similar magnitude.
Spending money in all the wrong places, like invading Iraq
In Counting the Hidden Costs of War, Anna Bernasek writes about the opinions of economists on the total costs of the invasion of Iraq, considering not just the layout for the war but its effects on our economy.
Two economists, Warwick J. McKibbin of the Brookings Institution and Andrew Stoeckel of the Center for International Economics in Australia, have calculated that the war may have already cost the United States $150 billion in lost gross domestic product [from hjigher oil prices, increased budget deficits, and the effects of greater uncertainty on financial markets, business investment and consumer spending] since fighting began in March 2003. That is close to one percentage point of growth lost over the past year and a half. If that figure is correct, the nation's annual economic growth rate, which has been 3.7 percent during this period, could have been nearly 4.7 percent without the war. But if Mr. McKibbin and Mr. Stoeckel are correct in their estimate, the real cost of the war to date, including direct spending and lost economic growth, is in the neighborhood of $270 billion.
To see how big the future economic costs could be, consider a study prepared by William D. Nordhaus, a Yale economist[, who] calculated how much output the economy would lose, based on two possibilities: a quick victory or a long conflict[, and] he came up with a whopping figure of $1.9 trillion in costs during the decade after the invasion.
Spending for children, as in the last item, is trivial by comparison.
Speaking of mis-spending public funds, in Top Army Official Calls for a Halliburton Inquiry, Erik Eckholm writes about the allegations of the top civilian contracting official for the Army Corp of Engineers about the no-bid contracts between the military and a Halliburton subsidiary. Our acts speak louder than our words, and proclaim that mammoth corporate interests are more important than human children.
Investing in children as a key to the future
In High-Yield Investment: Kids, Roger Hickey writes about a new study, "Exceptional Returns: Economic, Fiscal, and Social Benefits of Investment in Early Childhood Development," written by Robert Lynch of the Economic Policy Institute, showing that the failure to invest in the development of young children is extremely costly to society in the long run, and that therefore the solution that saves us money is to invest in "basic things like nutrition, health care, pre-K education and programs to prepare and support parents" is both morally appropriate and a great fiscal benefit:
[S]mart investments in comprehensive high-quality early childhood development programs would more than pay for themselves-generating more than $2 in returns to taxpayers for every $1 invested. (The total benefits to society from investments in early childhood development programs actually exceed 8 to 1.) The report also finds that investment in the health and education of children in their early years-3 and 4 years old-will eventually produce significant increases in economic productivity and growth. At the same time, this investment will reduce both the public costs and personal burdens of remedial education, welfare, crime and widespread poverty that result from our current failure to enrich the lives of many of Americas children. What Lynch demonstrates is that the young children we invest in today will become more productive workers, make higher income and pay more taxes in the future. In turn, this will strengthen our public finances and raise contributions into the Social Security and Medicare system, enhancing the solvency of these programs just as our public retirement system is expected to need more revenues.
He quotes the concurrence of a Nobel-prize winning economist from the University of Chicago and members of the Federal Reserve Board of Minneapolis. As always, the political will to make the initial investment in other people's kids is the obstacle.
Tuesday, October 26, 2004
Unfair trade in the land of cotton
In U.S. Appeals WTO Ruling on Cotton Subsidies, Emad Mekay writes on the US's continuing violations of free trade principles by heavily subsidizing cotton production:
The United States said Monday it is appealing a World Trade Organisation (WTO) ruling that declared the bulk of U.S. government subsidies to its cotton industry illegal. In West Africa alone, 10 million people depend on cotton for their livelihoods. The U.S. share of world cotton exports is expected to reach 42 percent this year -- its highest since 1960 and an increase from 24 percent of the global market in 1996. [T]he international development group Oxfam said in a report released Monday that U.S. subsidies encourage overproduction and promote the dumping of excess cotton overseas, undermining the livelihoods of poor farmers in the developing world. Dumping is the practice of exporting at below the cost of production. The report 'Finding The Moral Fibre: Why Reform is Urgently Needed for a Fair Cotton Trade' urges Washington to reform its farm schemes and stop dumping. Oxfam estimates that U.S. dumping created losses of almost 400 million dollars for poor cotton-producing African countries between 2001 and 2003. The Oxfam report counters the notion that cotton subsidies help small U.S. family farms, by pointing out that the largest 10 percent of cotton farms in the nation receive a staggering 78 percent of all cotton subsidies.
Earlier this year, another trade think tank, the Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy (IATP), issued a report on U.S. dumping, 'United States Dumping on World Agricultural Markets'. It found that in 2002, the latest year for which numbers are available, cotton was exported from the United States at 61 percent below its cost of production. The export price for U.S. cotton is 37 cents per pound, down from 93 cents per pound in 1995, says IATP, rates that poor nations find unacceptable.
As previously stated, our approach to free trade appears to be favorable in those settings where we are competitive, but otherwise unfavorable.
Our version of emperor worship
In Without a Doubt, Ron Suskind writes about the closed-minded absolutism that runs our country:
Bruce Bartlett, a domestic policy adviser to Ronald Reagan and a treasury official for the first President Bush, told me recently that ''if Bush wins, there will be a civil war in the Republican Party starting on Nov. 3.'' The nature of that conflict, as Bartlett sees it? Essentially, the same as the one raging across much of the world: a battle between modernists and fundamentalists, pragmatists and true believers, reason and religion. ''Just in the past few months,'' Bartlett said, ''I think a light has gone off for people who've spent time up close to Bush: that this instinct he's always talking about is this sort of weird, Messianic idea of what he thinks God has told him to do.'' ''This is why he dispenses with people who confront him with inconvenient facts,'' Bartlett went on to say. ''He truly believes he's on a mission from God. Absolute faith like that overwhelms a need for analysis. The whole thing about faith is to believe things for which there is no empirical evidence.'' Bartlett paused, then said, ''But you can't run the world on faith.''
[When various officials] requested explanations for many of the president's decisions, policies that often seemed to collide with accepted facts[, t]he president would say that he relied on his ''gut'' or his ''instinct'' to guide the ship of state, and then he ''prayed over it.''
Since 9/11, Bush's intolerance of doubters has, if anything, increased, and few dare to question him now. As [former EPA Director Christine Todd] Whitman told me on the day in May 2003 that she announced her resignation as administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency: ''In meetings, I'd ask if there were any facts to support our case. And for that, I was accused of disloyalty!''
The faith-based presidency is a with-us-or-against-us model that has been enormously effective at, among other things, keeping the workings and temperament of the Bush White House a kind of state secret.
This is one key feature of the faith-based presidency: open dialogue, based on facts, is not seen as something of inherent value. It may, in fact, create doubt, which undercuts faith. It could result in a loss of confidence in the decision-maker and, just as important, by the decision-maker.
[When Bush stated that] the United States should pull out of the Arab-Israeli conflict because ''I don't see much we can do over there at this point[," Colin Powell was startled at the sudden reversal of the 30-year policy of American engagement.] Such a move would unleash Sharon, Powell countered, and tear the delicate fabric of the Mideast in ways that might be irreparable. Bush brushed aside Powell's concerns impatiently. ''Sometimes a show of force by one side can really clarify things.''
A cluster of particularly vivid qualities was shaping George W. Bush's White House through the summer of 2001: a disdain for contemplation or deliberation, an embrace of decisiveness, a retreat from empiricism, a sometimes bullying impatience with doubters and even friendly questioners. Already Bush was saying, Have faith in me and my decisions, and you'll be rewarded. All through the White House, people were channeling the boss. He didn't second-guess himself; why should they?
[A senior aide to Bush told the author] that guys like me were ''in what we call the reality-based community,'' which he defined as people who ''believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality.'' I nodded and murmured something about enlightenment principles and empiricism. He cut me off. ''That's not the way the world really works anymore,'' he continued. ''We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality -- judiciously, as you will -- we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors . . . and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.''
Mark McKinnon, a longtime senior media adviser to Bush, [said to the author,] ' We don't care [that you think Bush is an idiot]. You see, you're outnumbered 2 to 1 by folks in the big, wide middle of America, busy working people who don't read The New York Times or Washington Post or The L.A. Times. And you know what they like? They like the way he walks and the way he points, the way he exudes confidence. They have faith in him. And when you attack him for his malaprops, his jumbled syntax, it's good for us. Because you know what those folks don't like? They don't like you!'' In this instance, the final ''you,'' of course, meant the entire reality-based community.
For prior articles on this pseudo-Christian faith, see items 932, 835, and others in the archive under "compassionate conservatism."
Monday, October 25, 2004
Universal health care is still what's good for GM
In G.M., Missing Forecasts, Is Hurt by Loss on U.S. Autos, Danny Hakim writes on the continuing saga of GM's problems due to its inability to compete with foreign manufacturers who operate out of countries that provide national health care, whereas GM is stuck with paying pension and health care obligations. (See, most recently, item 1019.) The lack of universal health care is causing significant economic problems.
After the earnings announcement, Standard & Poor's cut G.M.'s debt rating to its lowest investment grade. Fitch reduced G.M.'s debt rating on Wednesday. G. Richard Wagoner Jr., the chairman and chief executive, said in a conference call on Thursday: "The health care cost trends in the U.S. are really out of control. It's a big issue for G.M.; it's a big issue for the U.S. economy as a whole." Increasing health costs put domestic automakers at a considerable disadvantage to competitors in Japan and Germany. G.M. spends about $1,400 for each vehicle produced in the United States on health care, a figure it says is about $1,000 more than Toyota. It provides coverage to 1.1 million Americans, including workers, retirees and families. By contrast, automakers based in Germany and Japan have retirees who live mostly in countries with national health systems.
The nature of the corporate beast
In Qwest, SEC settle fraud case, Tom McGhee writes:
Qwest has agreed to pay $250 million [(the second largest fine imposed by the SEC on a telecom company)] to settle charges that the company engaged in rampant fraud, conducted by former top managers in order to dupe investors. The Securities and Exchange Commission found that Qwest fraudulently claimed approximately $3.8 billion in "spurious" revenue while excluding $231 million in expenses.
In many of the deals, Qwest swapped or sold fiber-optic capacity to other companies and reported revenues even though the money wouldn't be paid for years, if ever. Qwest's senior management pressured underlings to meet unrealistic revenue targets by paying bonuses only when they hit those targets. They "created a culture in which performance was measured exclusively by the numbers. Accounting rules, policies, or controls that interfered with meeting revenue targets were stretched or ignored outright, creating an environment of fraud," the complaint said.
In The Real Consequences of Pension Projections, Danny Hakim and Mary Williams Walsh write that the SEC is investigating several large corporations to determine whether their statements regarding pension obligations were also overly optimistic:
Analysts have repeatedly criticized companies with pension plans for using assumptions that appear too optimistic given current financial conditions. Those who follow the auto industry said yesterday that the automakers' accounting practices were not out of the norm for corporate America; however, the regulators appear to be reviewing whether the standard practices themselves are appropriate.
Last week, G.M. said it would probably raise its health care inflation rate-or the amount it assumes the company's health care costs will rise in its financial reporting-from its current 8.5 percent to "double digits." If G.M. raised its health care inflation assumption to the lowest possible "double digit" rate of 10 percent, from the current 8.5 percent, it would reduce earnings by about $800 million and add more than $10 billion to the company's long-term liability.
As noted in previous items, forecasting pension liabilities in the remote future gives a company a lot of leeway for making favorable assumptions. Those assumptions are typically overly optimistic, which results the appearance of greater profitability now (and higher CEO bonuses as a result) and in the consequent underfunding of those liabilities, so that employees and the taxpayers subsidize the current fraud.
On the insurance front, and following item 1081, in Insurance Investigation Widens to Include Costs, Joseph B. Treaster writes:
While the current focus of the New York investigation is on bid-rigging and price-fixing among commercial insurance brokers and insurance companies, investigators say Mr. Spitzer is also pursuing reports of payoffs that may increase coverage costs for tens of millions of individuals[,] whether brokers and consultants are demanding extra fees for favored treatment in the sale of employee benefits like group life and disability coverage. [Brokers] are supposed to deal with insurance companies at arms length. Long ago, however, they began collecting fees from the other side of the deal, from the insurance companies, creating a conflict of interest, some industry experts said. The most widespread form of payments is a reward to the broker or consultant from an insurance company for a certain volume of business and for business that is expected to have few claims and therefore be especially profitable. These arrangements are known as contingency fees, placement service agreements and market service agreements, just as they are in property casualty insurance. But an additional form of payment results in higher individual costs for corporate employees who choose to buy life, disability or accident coverage beyond the amount provided by employers. In those transactions, the executive said, the insurance company tacks on an additional annual fee of perhaps $5 to $15 for every worker who increases coverage. While the extra money is collected by the insurance companies, the executive said, it is passed on to the brokers. Sometimes, the executives said, employers are aware of the extra charge, sometimes not.
These excess costs were quite lucrative. In Contingent commissions 7% of MMC's 2003 revenues, Gavin Souter and Doug McLeod write that Marsh & McLennan (the world's largest insurance broker) earns about $845M a year in such extra costs, representing 12% of its revenue.
The managers of the same company (Marsh) apparently used complex deals with other business entities they controlled to profit from the purchase of company assets and apparently profited by investing in companies that worked with Marsh. In Leaders of Brokerage Made Partnerships for Private Profits, Alex Berenson explores the potential conflicts of interest:
Because they had personal stakes in [the partnership] and received fees for its success, Marsh executives stood to profit by providing low estimates or otherwise understating matters if Trident bought companies from Marsh. In essence, the executives would be selling Marsh's property to themselves. In addition, Marsh itself might be able to make money on its Trident stake at the expense of its clients by encouraging those clients to buy insurance from companies in which Trident had invested.
As an aside, it is interesting to see insurers defend their contingency fees in view of their relentless attack on lawyer's contingency fees. For example, in PCI Says Industry Unfairly Painted in Light of Alleged Illegal Practices, the Insurance Journal writes about the comments of PCI President and CEO Ernie Csiszar:
"Incentive compensation programs, including the payment of contingent fees and commissions based on the volume or profitability of business, are a part of the fabric in many industries, including insurance, real estate, and auto dealerships. These agreements not only award sales excellence, they also can result in the consumer being able to enjoy more favorable pricing, terms and conditions. "PCI does not believe that these contractual relationships between insurers and agents and brokers should be subject to review by regulators or law enforcement officials, and we believe that it is poor public policy for legislators and regulators to dictate the terms and conditions of contracts between private parties. "PCI supports a competitive insurance marketplace based on transparency and disclosure. Anything that skews that market -- be it burdensome regulation or illegal acts -- is not in the best interests of consumers, companies, or the market."
In addition ot ripping off their own customers, insurers help other companies do likewise. In A.I.G. Says It Is Target of Midwest Inquiry, Joseph B. Treaster writes:
Already under scrutiny from regulators in Washington and New York, the American International Group disclosed yesterday that it was the target of a federal grand jury investigation over its role in helping a Midwest cellphone distributor cover up millions in business losses. In the cellphone case, in Indiana, A.I.G. agreed a year ago to pay $10 million to settle a Securities and Exchange Commission complaint that it provided a contract for the distributor, Brightpoint Inc. of Plainfield, Ind., that had the appearance of insurance but was merely an exchange of money. The deal allowed Brightpoint to reduce its losses for 1998 by nearly $12 million. A.I.G. did not admit wrongdoing in the settlement. The new investigation concerns such "income smoothing" products marketed by A.I.G., the company said.
In the libertarian paradise of government limited to police services and market-enforcement, these corporations would essentially rule the country. Is this such a wise idea?
The lower and middle class in the squeeze
In Less Cash in Their Pockets: Trends in Incomes, Wages, Taxes, and Health Spending of Middle-Income Families, 2000-03, Lawrence Mishel, Michael Ettinger, and Elise Gould of the Economic Policy Institute present a briefing paper documenting the squeeze on the middle class from lower employment income and higher costs, particularly medical costs. Among its main findings:

Pre-tax incomes fell for middle-income families of every type between 2000 and 2003. .
After taking into account changes in both pre-tax income and taxes, the finding remains that most middle-income families lost ground between 2000 and 2003. .
Family spending on higher insurance co-pays, deductibles, and premiums has escalated in recent years. Middle-income families saw their incomes erode between 2000 and 2003, after changes in both taxes and health spending are taken into account. For married-couple families with children, health spending rose three times faster than income (not inflation-adjusted) between 2000 and 2003, absorbing half the growth of their income. The post-tax, post-health-spending income of married-couple families with children, for instance, fell $699, or 1.3%, between 2000 and 2003, while that of single-mother families fell $433, or 2.0%.
On the subject of health costs, in Chipping Away At Health Care, Rachel Klein writes that the Bush administration allowed $1.1B that had been allocated and earmarked for spending on uninsured children under the State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) to return to the national treasury unspent.
On the continuing saga of vanishing pension and retirement promises, in PBGC takes over Kemper pension plan, Jerry Geisel writes:
The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. on Thursday took over and terminated Kemper Insurance Cos. underfunded pension plan, the biggest insurer-sponsored pension plan ever assumed by the PBGC. The PBGC estimates it will be liable for about $529 million of the $540 million funding shortfall. That easily eclipses what had been its biggest loss from the takeover of an insurer-sponsored pension plan. In 2002, the PBGC took over failed insurer Reliance Insurance Co.s pension plan, which was underfunded by about $124 million.
On the subject of housing costs, in The War on Affordable Housing, the New York Times Editors write that the Bush administration seems intent on destroying Section 8 housing for the poor. They note several steps taken by HUD policy makers that seem irrational except as a means to encourage investors and developers to distrust the program, to avoid new commitments and cut back on their old ones.
Section 8 works this way: instead of doing the construction itself, the government guarantees subsidies for rents in the private market. Families, most of them at or below the poverty level, pay 30 percent of their incomes toward rent, and Section 8 vouchers pay the rest. At the moment, the program covers about two million people, a majority of them elderly or in families with children.
The insanity of this ideologically driven attack on Section 8 is underscored in a bipartisan book [called "Opportunity and Progress"] - written by two Republicans and two Democrats - just out from the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard. The authors include two former housing secretaries: Jack Kemp, a Republican, and Henry Cisneros, a Democrat. The authors argue convincingly that the country is sacrificing both families and neighborhoods by hacking away at the most successful housing program in history.