For the first decade of its existance, H K Ball and Associates was for the most part engaged in generating business plans. These involved market analysis, a study of a company's resources and history, and a numerical representation of what the future might look like in terms of the same components.

Toward the end of the 1970's, however, it became apparent that with the advent of spreadsheets, companies could do some of their own modeling of the future, play their own "what if" games with varying scenarios without much help from outside consultants.

During that period, HKB had been producing a considerable number of management information type computer programs for its own use, things that were not, and for the most part still are not available in the marketplace. These had to do with the fundamental questions of planning:

· What does our history really tell us? · What are our market shares likely to be versus competion? · What is the impact of each of our resources on profits?

While the mechanics of laying out the numbers of a plan are now well understood, the approach to identifying the proper inputs is not, and we feel that this is the role of the planning consultant today. To use use computer technology to more clearly identify the inputs for business plans, whether they be for actions the next day or for direction over the next 20 years, or somewhere in between.

They say it takes three legs to hold up a stool. In a similar way, it might be said that there are three elements to a plan, as suggested above, history, markets and resources. HKB has assembled three groups of software to address these questions called, respectively, Squiggly, HeadCount, and Slice

Squiggly

This is a program that permits the graphic viewing of operating history of any kind in the form of line graphs. The graphs can be assembled on a screen in any groupings, and can be added, subtracted, multiplied and divided by each other to produce new line curves. Vertical event lines can be superimposed to highlight the impacts of decisions or external happenings. Numbers are placed near the curves to suggest degree of impacts and to enhance comparisons between curves. Test market data is interpreted using Signature and Belief Zone techniques, proprietary to HKB.

The data banks for the curves are arranged in a heirarchy, in such a way that random access to subgroupings of curves is possible at any point. This permits the viewer (more often top management than analytical people) to use their eyes and their intuition to tell them what to look at next on the screen. This takes some getting used to, since the language of graphics is different from the tables of numbers we all are accustomed to using in making decisons.

The impact of this type of system is to spot operating problems weeks, months or often years before it was possible to do so with tables of numbers. The curves permit the analysis of old operating data to find impacts years ago that were never found or understood.

HeadCount

This is another family of programs that permit the dividing of a manager's job into functions and subdividing the functions into skills, each of which have a personality characteristic that can be represented numerically and graphically. The Head part of the system involves the measuring of the manager's personality characteristics, constructing a profile, and comparing with compatibility with each element of his job. The Count part involves the computing of a now and future profit impact of each job element, and the establishing of a dollar per hour value, based on how the manager spends his time. A subjective evaluation of the manager's actual performance is added to the mix of information.

If it is determined that a high dollar per hour function is not actually being performed well, and there is not a good personality fit within the function, management can quickly identify it and take action. We have found that simple awareness of the problem by the manager and his boss provides much of the solution. Or, job descriptions can be adjusted among a number of managers, or formal or informal training can be provided or any combination of the above.

The impact of this work is that the physical and people resources can be better matched up to do the job.

Slice

This is a program that identifies markets by segment and projects the share of each competitor over the year based on weighted and graded market share criteria. The gradings for the planning company are tied directly to resource expenditures. It is therefore possible to view pie charts on a map to show the market shares of each competitor in each segment, along with change in market share, based on combinations of resource investments that can be quickly changed. This is the essence of market planning.

It is possible to consolidate fifty pages of tables of competitor market share projections on one page, one map. Many maps can be viewed on a monitoring screen in a few seconds, enabling the manager to synthesize literally thousands of pages of tables in his head. This enables him to visualize concepts and alternatives previously concealed in the mass of data.

the glue

What makes the elements or legs of the stool stick together? HKB long experience generating mathematical models integrates the three components. In the case of squiggly, it is the knowledge of how to structure the massive data file history of any company, of how to select key events, of how to recognize what the squiggly lines mean, much as a diagnostic physician looking at the EKG of a heartbeat. In the case of slice, it is the knowledge of how to determine and structure market segments, and to identify and weight the factors that truly influence market share. And with HeadCount it is the art of determining profit impact of job functions and skills of each manager. Overall, it is a teaching job, of showing management how to use the new technologies to make decisions and to plan, and to develop their own sets of intuitions using the new tools.

Probe

Probe enables managers in different cities or on laptops to view and manipulate the same squigglies, headcounts and slices at the same time, as if they were in the same room.