Time to bore the RPGers again, but this IS Blog, Jvstin Style, and tomorrow IS the Super Bowl, so I have to talk football.

After all, come Tuesday, this space will likely not have any real stuff on my favorite sport until the NFL draft, and after that, not until the summer.

So, first things first. I've been asked many times by those who just find out about my fondness for the monsters of the midway. Just HOW in the world did I, a guy whom if you saw on the street,would probably never guess I watched the sport?

I'm not sure. I do remember, vividly, the first football game I ever watched. Chargers versus Dolphins, 1981 AFC playoffs. The game happened to be on at my Grandmother's house, my uncles watching the game avidly. I was just 10 at the time, but it looked interesting, and exciting. (Since then it has been declared one of the best all time games, the Chargers winning in overtime). That was my first taste of the sport. I watched a few more games over the next couple of years, slowly and surely getting a taste for the sport. The first Super Bowl I watched, start to finish, was the New England Patriots (how ironic!) versus the Chicago Bears, in 1985. Although it was a 46-10 extermination of the patsies, I enjoyed the game, and resolved to not only watch it, but understand it and really get into it.

I've watched every Super Bowl since. My all time favorite Super Bowls have to be Giants versus Denver, Giants versus Buffalo (Norwood's folly!), Broncos versus Packers, and the second half of Bengals-49ers in 1988 (The first half of the game was as dull as you could imagine, the second was a gem.) and the second half of Rams-Titans (the first half was a Ram blowout, the second had drama enough for opera, including a tragic 1 yard from tying the game stop at the end).

The Super Bowls I found the WORST were the 49ers-Broncos (55-10!), 49ers-Chargers (49-26, and don't be fooled...the 49ers scored on the third play of the game and the Chargers didn't score most of those points until it was far too late) and the Cowboys-Bills Super Bowls (thorough pastings of the Bills, every time).

And now its time for me to make a fool of myself, in joining the annual quest for a Super Bowl Prediction. Predicting the Super Bowl winner is harder than you think, even when there is a clear and uncontested favorite (and the Rams are that!). After all, four years ago, the Packers were a big favorite over the Broncos, and the Broncos gave them a run for the money. In fact, I wrote a poem to commemorate the Broncos unbelieveable and heroic victory. The Giants were underdogs when they shut down the No-huddle Bills. (back before the Bills were a laughingstock of Super Bowl misery).

Anyway, before I make the prediction, let me share with you an elaboration of the secret to team success in the NFL. I think it was Marv Levy (former coach of the Bills) who explained a couple of years ago that, for a team to be truly successful, they have to excel in two of three areas: A. Offense B. Defense C. Special Teams.

For example:
Last Year's Super Bowl winners were the Baltimore Ravens, a BC team. Their defense is possibly the best ever to take the field in a Super Bowl--they would have shut out the Giants if not for a kick return for a touchdown on the Giants part. Not even the Steelers in the 70's or the legendary Bears of 1985 allowed only 7 points. The Giants of that year were ALSO a BC team, but the Ravens were a far better one.

AB teams are actually fairly rare, but when they do show up, they can become dynastic. The Cowboys in the mid 90's were an AB team all the way,as were the 49ers of the 80's and the Broncos in the late 90's.

AC teams are far more common than AB. The Rams are an AC team with a big emphasis on the A. It's their lack of B which kept them from the Super Bowl last year, although its gotten much better this year. They just might be one of those "complete teams." The Titans of two years ago were a AC team, their C coming to the fore in their last second kick return for a playoff win against the Bills dubbed the "The Music City Miracle". Their C did not do them very well in the Super Bowl, and so the Rams stopped them just short of tying the game, as mentioned above.

The Patriots, whom they are facing this year, are a BC team...with an emphasis on the C...their special teams being the difference against both the Raiders, and the Steelers. Note that it doesn't take spectacular kickoff returns, or punt returns, or field goals to make a C team. Playing smart on punts and kickoffs, chewing up field position, pinning your opponent, or keeping yourself from being pinned after a kick, all can make the difference...and the Patriots do all of this. The only problem is, it has a large element of luck in it, and hard to rely upon...on the other hand, neglecting your special teams, no matter how good your offense, is deadly. The Bills playing their Super Bowl against the Giants lost memorably...when their field goal kicker missed.

So...with a team that is AC and maybe even ABC, versus a BC team with a lot of luck and breaks to get here, you have to go with the AC team. And that would be the Rams. The score? I think it will be 31-20 Rams. The Patriots might frustrate the Rams for a while or for stretches of time...but in the end, that offense is going to destroy the Patriots, who do not have the capability to keep up in scoring--unless and a big unless, they get interceptions for touchdowns, blocked punts and field goals, and great kick returns.

We'll see how things progress on Monday.

Learned today that Nobilis will now not be available until at least April. Rats.

This is what the term "vaporware" came from. And I am having shuddering rememberances of the ADRPG promised book on Rebma which never saw the light of day.

Then again, maybe because I am feeling lousy (physically) is just making me cranky. It might even explain why the Black Hole incident got under my skin the other day.

Saw Count of Monte Cristo (dragging myself to the theater to do it). On my popcorn scale (1 to five kernels, five being a Classic Movie), it gets a bare two and a half kernels. For every good piece of cinematography, there was a foot in the mouth, sometimes literally. Poorly written dialogue, a fight scene which was edited rather badly and a couple of glaring logistical flaws in plot. I think of this much like I did the Les Miserables movie done a couple of years ago...definitely not the book, by any stretch of imagination.

Rikibeth joins the Blogging community with a Blog entitled Rikibeth's Amber: Tales of the City. She's already got the ball rolling with an old article of hers on money and Amber.

Agitated today.

I think its a reflection of work but it is coloring my perceptions of things.

For example, looking around a bit, reading Djinn the Spazz blog, I see she responded to my Black Hole comment. Her implication irks me somehow, but I think its just my agitation today making me find fault in it.

Iwas speaking from a personal standpoint as far as ACUS goes. Not that the con was destined to be a disaster or anything of the sort...but so far it seems like its going to be somewhat diminished by the absence of friends I don't get to see as often as I'd like. That's why I call it a Black Hole. If I really thought that it was going to be bad, I wouldn't be running a game.

I've tentatively decided not to run a second. I co-ran two games and ran an informal one in slot 1, and that was quite a bit for me last year. I think Ad Astra per Amber is enough, for now. I still might get roped into the slot one gambit, depends on what Bridgette, Felicia, Scott and the other friends that do come want to do. Besides, I have no illusions...I know that my games are not precisely clamored over at Ambercon.

Early monday morning.

Rams beat the Eagles (although the dirty birds made a game of it, more than anyone gave them credit for).

Patriots...shock the Steelers?! Who would have thought? Brady gets hurt, Bledsoe off the bench...and the Steelers can't take advantage of a QB who hasn't played in a couple of months. Once again, Pittsburgh goes down in the big game at home.
In the 1990's, Pittsburgh had three AFC championship games at Three Rivers. In 1994, they were such big favorites over the Chargers, they (as was vogue for the time) made a super bowl rap video. Thing is, they made theirs BEFORE the Chargers game.
Result? Chargers win.
Then came their game against the Indianapolis Colts in 1996, a cinderella team out of the AFC East much like the Patriots this year. The Steelers barely held on, a last minute pass by the Colts JUST falling short
In 1997, the Steelers faced the wildcard Denver Broncos...and were spanked. Those Broncos, if you recall, then went on to defeat the mighty Green Bay Packers in one of the most entertaining Super Bowls ever.
So, 1-2 in the 1990's. And now, in this season, heavy favorites over the Patriots, the Steelers seemed to learn NOTHING. I've read this morning that Pittsburgh actually made their travel plans to New Orleans for the Super Bowl in advance "To avoid the rush." I'm glad they did so, it means they can go down to Bourbon St. and get drunk while the AFC champion Patriots take on the Rams.

The bookmakers install the Rams as 14 point favorites over the Patriots. The two teams actually played this year, with the Rams winning 24-17. I'd really not like to bet against the Greatest Show on Earth, with Warner, Faulk, Holt, and friends...but "On any given Sunday..." was proved Sunday Afternoon in the Land of Three Rivers. It's a longshot, but the Patriots have a chance.

Heck, maybe if the Patriots DID beat the Rams, Warner will reveal himself as a space alien in his frustration.

One counter-argument though. This is the third Super Bowl appearance for the Patriots. Ironically, their other two appearances were held in New Orleans. Unfortunately, both of those were failures. They lost to the Bears 46-10 in 1985...and then lost to the Packers 35-21 in 1996.