In a world
where reform and economic progress marks the success of an ex-soviet
state, Belarus is in a backward slide. This country of impoverished
military professionals, farmers, and heavy industry has not taken
well to melding with the world around it. What prevents this
country from following through on post communist reforms? What
Ills obstruct it's newfound passion for being a part of a great
quasi-Soviet state? One most obvious answer to both questions
is an elected President that has dreams of dictatorship. In effect,
Belarus is in the convulsive throws of forward stepping and side
slipping her problems. Thankfully, her disruptive president might,
by miscalculation, cause the needed change that Belarus so desperately
needs, A foreign policy of collaboration that makes sense in
today's political climate.
Historically, Belarus has had a colorful past and a rich history
of being in alliance and conflict with her neighbors. Through
history she has been part of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, The
Polish empire and the Russian empire. Her native population developed
a culture and languageuniquely it's own. The physical geography
is a marshy flat that rests at a physical crossroads.
Her true hope for survival rested in whom she joined with in
military defense and cultural exchange.
Geographic position shapes political thought and motivation and
Belarus is no exception. Her borders with the west still mimic
her past cold war status of being the buffer between the west
and Russia. Experience has proven that Belarus is a pawn in a
bigger battle of regional control. During World War Two Nazi
Germany plundered the country. One third of the population was
either killed in combat or died in internment/death camps. After
World War Two, Belarus became the cold war zone of separation
between Russia and the West. Soviet troops from all over the
USSR were encamped in the country in a permanent posture of defense.
Even transportation reflects this defensive stance.Roadways within
the region crisscross just behind the western border in such
a way as to provide ready access for defensive maneuvers while
limiting access into Poland.2
Even in this day of military
downsizing Belarus continues to face the problems of maintaining
the largest military force for a country of it's size.
On the 27th of July 1990 the Supreme Soviet of Belarus made a
declaration on State Sovereignty3
and withdrew from the Soviet
Union on the 25th of August 1991.4
The downsizing of the
military was taken on as a top priority as soon as some political
stability was achieved . Belarus faced the reality that funding
would no longer support the military machine it once had. Cost
reductions were needed for a military budget that is the smallest
of any former communist country except Albania.5 Downsizing
the war machine was, and continues to be, no easy task for a
country whose existence hinged on being an oversized military
base for the ex-Soviet Union.
"As the USSR's front line in the potential military
confrontation between East and West during the Cold War, Belarus
had the highest concentration of military personnel and equipment
of any Soviet republic. Some 250,000 officers and armed service
members . . . one soldier per 43 civilians."6
Foreign policy also took a turn with the adoption of the Strategic
Arms Reduction Treaty (START I), The Lisbon Protocol, and the
Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) in February of 1993. In
fact the country surpassed the requirements of the Lisbon protocol
by adopting a plan to rid itself of nuclear weapons in three
years instead of the seven years allowed7
. During that time Belarus also
declared it's Neutrality to the world. The one burden they had
to carry under the Start I treaty is continued spending on disarmament.
When taken in context Belarus will spend more on breaking down
its military machine than either France or Britain. In 1995-96
the primary concern will be the welfare of a large ex-military
population, active, on reserve, and retired. The problem of what
to do with an inactive military is still a perplexing political
problem that has yet to be dealt with properly.
Aside from military concerns, Belarus continues to brave a new
post Soviet era in a backward looking way. Constitutional infighting
between Parliament, The Constitutional Court and the first elected
president, recently resulted in the return of the Soviet style
flag and a wish to integrate with Russia. Internally the country
seems disgusted with the present lack of economic and political
progress. The country is grappling with the hope that by reviving
ties with Russia the situation will get better. Meanwhile, Russia
seems little interested in taking on the extra burden of having
to solve a full spectrum of Belarusian problems that include
military restructuring, heavy industrial pollution, remnants
of the Chornobyl disaster and an economy with few free market
reforms.
President Lukashenka, deserves to be noted as a man who is causing
many of the internal problems Belarus now faces. His disregard
for constitutional conventions and bullying of the election process
for the prospects of a reunification with Russia have thrown
the government into disarray. Using old communist election rules,
Lukashenka did whatever he could to hinder the election of a
new Parliament and set upon a course that might leave him holding
all the legal power. Campaign funds were limited to a mere $50US
and television coverage was non existent. Worse, Lukashenka made
public statements on national television claiming that all the
candidates of opposition were unworthy of support. Elections
failed to elect enough representatives in the first and second
rounds of voting to bring a Parliament to order. Everything seemed
to be going according to Lukashenka's plan. However, for some
unknown reason, just prior to an election the president committed
political suicide when he announced, on German radio, that Adolf
Hitler was a good role model for rebuilding a nation. The resulting
elections not only brought a full Parliament to order, but also
produced an antinationalistic response from the voters.8
Dictatorship, the prize that the president had been after evaporated
before the leaders eyes.
Another factor that plays in the minds of the Belarusian people
is environmental pollution. The legacy of the Soviet Union left
deep scars on the Republic of Belarus. Chornobyl caused a tremendous
amount of ecological damage in a region that can ill afford to
repair it. Aid from various external organizations has slowly
been trickling in but a lack of economic strength within Russia,
Ukraine, and Belarus has slowed this process. One main focus
of the government over the coming years will be to receive help
through international channels to deal with this nuclear nightmare.
The effects of Chornobyl will shape Belarusian policy for years
to come. |
