Books reviews, current events, and other musings

I haven’t been blogging much about the war in Iraq. For whatever reason, I prefer to spout my views in the Three Way Action forums instead of here. And harvesting the most shocking news stories that I come across hasn’t sounded appealing. What’s the point of expressing, once again, my dismay about how badly the Bush White House has fucked things up in Iraq?

Anyway, everyone should read Billmon’s excellent, though depressing, analysis of Iraq’s prospects. Unfortunately, everything I know about Iraq and about history in general leads me to the same conclusion.

And what I see coming is failure – the most spectacular U.S. foreign policy failure since the last helicopter lifted the last marine off the roof of the American embassy in Saigon.

I became pessimistic last fall, when the chaos continued, without any signs of improvement, month after month after Saddam’s government fell. There wasn’t any reason to believe that things would turn around. Insurgencies can be defeated by strengthening the occupying force, cutting off the insurgents' resources, or winning the hearts and minds of the population. None of those developments seems likely in Iraq.

Instead, over the last few months the situation has gotten worse. Counter-insurgency measures anger the population, which in turn strengthens the insurgency. The inability to maintain order or supplies jobs dissipates support for the US. Few Muslims want their country to be occupied by a bunch of infidels, even before the images of prison torture emerged.

And the half-measures being considered, such as handing power to a US-dominated Iraqi government or increased UN involvement, won’t be sufficient to satisfy the Iraqi people. As Billmon says,

All the blood and treasure and international credibility sacrificed over the past year will have been spent simply to end up roughly where America stood in Vietnam in 1963 – desperately trying to prop up a corrupt, quasi-colonial regime with virtually no domestic legitimacy.

You’ve got to stay focused on all of the suffering that’s taking place, by American soldiers and by the Iraqi people. If the US troops pull out, Iraqi might face civil war or a Muslim fundamentalist government. Still, unless the US can resolve the problems facing Iraq, which hasn’t been the case thus far, there’s no reason for them to stay.

posted by Julian at 11:40 PM

Novelist Tom Holland’s Rubicon: The Last Years of the Roman Republic describes Rome’s transition from republic to empire. The exciting events of those times, from around 100 BC to 30 BC, involved several colorful personalities, including Julius Caesar, Augustus Caesar, Cicero, Cleopatra, Pompey, Sulla, and Spartacus. Along the way there were civil wars, marches on Rome, revolts, territorial expansions, and two triumvirates. Holland captures the mood of the times, at least among the oligarchy, as very ambitious individuals attempted to seize power while others chose sides or tried to preserve the traditional institutions, such as the Senate. He brings to life the temperament, perspectives, and strategies of the major players, along with the social milieu they operated in. Though other books may lay out the facts in a more concrete fashion, Rubicon does an excellent job of weaving together the story behind them.

posted by Julian at 11:30 PM