Temple is head and shoulders above the rest of the league
this season. The East Division crown is theirs by default. In the West,
Xavier is the best of a sorry bunch.
Temple's style lends itself to close games, but they're
more vulnerable to upset in tournament play rather than the regular season. Both
Dayton and George Washington made noises during the
preseason, so they could play spoiler to Xavier.
Key games:
1 /11: @ Dayton 76 Xavier 72
1 /22: @ Dayton 83 George Washington 76
1 /25: @ Temple 59 Xavier 40
2 / 1: Temple 75 @ Massachusetts 48
2 / 2: @ Xavier 65 Dayton 64 (OT)
2 / 5: @ George Washington 78 Xavier 67
2 / 9: @ George Washington 95 Dayton 90
2 /17: Temple 64 @ Dayton 58
2 /22: @ Xavier 88 George Washington 76
2 /26: @ Temple 72 Massachusetts 54
3 / 4: Temple 98 @ George Washington 67
The backcourt woes of North Carolina throws a monkey wrench
into the works. Now Duke doesn't have to worry so much
about its inexperience. Even unproven teams like
Wake Forest and
Georgia Tech can entertain thoughts of a title.
The ACC is balanced at the top this year with any one of 4 teams among
Duke, North Carolina,
Wake Forest and Maryland
with a shot to wind up anywhere from first to fourth.
NC State and Georgia Tech
can act as spoilers, nothing more.
Schedulewise, Wake Forest has a chance to seize control of
the regular season chase with 3 games against the other top teams before January 21st.
North Carolina saves two of its toughest road games for the
very end of the season, so they'll get a chance to develop.
Duke, which probably needs it the least, has the best of the
scheduling with a chance to steal victories on the road early but finishes the season with the
other top teams coming to their place.
Maryland had a huge win: snapping
Duke's in-conference win streak at 31, their home win streak
at 46, and their season win streak at 18. North Carolina
fought off a complete slide into irrelevance by handing
N.C. State its first home loss in their new arena.
Like in the ACC, the preseason favorite enters the season without its
backcourt leader. Michigan State without Mateen Cleaves
won't be able to hold off Ohio State with Scoonie Penn.
And Illinois may be primed to roll past both of them.
Michigan State is the favorite, but they may go
through a transition period readjusting the chemistry with the return of Mateen Cleaves.
Illinois has the personnel to challenge the Spartans within
league, but it's teams like Indiana and
Purdue who turn in the consistency of effort (especially on
the road) that often leads to regular season titles. Don't expect last year's magical ride to
repeat itself for Ohio State.
Look for Illinois to grab control of the early conference
race with two home games against the contenders in the first two weeks. That could send their
confidence on a surge that carries through the season.
Ohio State has the toughest schedule facing the top
contenders 6 times. Indiana can make a late surge with 3 home
games against the elite at the end of conference play.
Wisconsin may play the key role as spoiler in their home
games.
The regular season race isn't quite over, but
Michigan State has shown that they're the best team in
the league with their equalizing win at home over
Ohio State. They're 1-1 head-to-head, but the Spartans
have more weapons to take on all comers.
Kansas has the tradition and seems to have regained its way.
Texas is the rising star in the conference, but
Oklahoma State has a veteran squad led by seniors on a
mission to go out in style.
Texas has the personnel (especially when comparing
starting fives) to win their second consecutive regular season crown.
Kansas is still young, but they only face 3 contenders all
season while the other contenders (the Longhorns,
Oklahoma State and
Oklahoma) have to play elite teams 5 times.
Both Missouri and now Iowa State have invited
themselves to the party at the top of the conference standings -- both at the expense of
Kansas, by the way. Still, no one has broken through on the
road yet among the elite.
Oklahoma State's win at
Oklahoma is the biggest win inside the conference. Missouri
has failed to hold serve at home twice and is falling off the pace for the regular season title.
Connecticut is again the class of the league.
St. John's retains just enough of a nucleus from last
year to hold off Syracuse and Miami. The schedule favors
the Orangemen, who get the top two teams at home first.
St. John's and
Miami stumbled against the national elite in the preseason, but should be good for a spoiler
role inside the conference. Syracuse doesn't have enough
horses to unseat Connecticut.
Miami only plays the conference elite 3 times (once each), while the others each have to square
off in 5 games among the top contenders. Don't forget about Notre Dame.
Cincinnati has too much fire power for upstart
DePaul to make a serious run at them in the American
Division. The also-rans in the National Division are led by South Florida.
Take away the miracle comeback at the Palestra and you'll see that Pennsylvania routed
Princeton twice in head-to-head meetings. It could be more of
the same this year as the Tigers young backcourt tries to mature in a hurry.
No one particular team has distinguished itself during the preseason schedule. This season
inside the conference is as wide-open as any in recent memory.
The new Mountain West conference is just half of the old WAC. Only
Utah is among the national elite and they shouldn't have
trouble staying ahead of the likes of New Mexico and UNLV.
Arizona has the most talent up front, but a lot depends on a
freshman point guard. Stanford has lots of experienced
depth, but no star scorer. UCLA has the individual talent
to do well nationally, but maybe not the poise to take the regular season crown.
The conference race might be over just that quickly.
Arizona's huge road win at
Stanford right off the bat gives them a strangehold on the
title. They've already won at Cal. That only leaves
UCLA and Oregon as their
remaining tough road games. Meanwhile, the Cardinal has all 4 of their tough road games yet to
come.
With Kentucky slightly down this year, things are up for grabs
in the East Division (as well as the conference tournament).
Florida has the most talent of any team in the league (if not
the country), but the question is whether they can play like a mature team instead of a bunch of
immature all-stars. Tennessee also has the talent to slip
past the Wildcats, but can they play with poise in big games?
Auburn is the class of the West Division. Arkansas is too
green to make any noise before the conference tournament.
What's left of the WAC might still be too much for Fresno State to dominate, but at least
they've got a good shot to get a league crown this time.
In the preseason, Tulsa is the team that established
themselves as the favorite. With the split with the Mountain West
conference, the WAC doesn't get an automatic bid this year.
Pepperdine was more sure in their home victory over
Gonzaga than the other way around. It looks like the two
will tie for the regular season title. It'll have to wait until the tournament to decide for
sure which one is the best in the league this year.
3 / 4: WCC TOURNAMENT 1ST ROUND/QUARTERS @ Santa Clara, CA